- Markets Rebound on Kremlin’s Promise to Pull Back
- Russian Cyberattacks Intensified
- Privatization: Prisons, Bakeries, Prime Kyiv Real Estate
- Bankers Are Optimistic About Lending
Ukraine’s GDP warrants and Eurobonds reacted positively to news that Russia will start to withdraw its troops from Ukraine’s borders. Warrants jumped from 102.5% to 104.4%, and Eurobonds rose by 0.8-2.3 percentage points, depending on maturity dates.
U.S. intelligence agencies helped Ukraine foil 350 Russian cyberattacks during the first quarter of this year, US News reports, citing a Ukrainian embassy official in Washington. By comparison, Ukrainian security services interrupted 600 attacks during all of last year, reports Interfax-Ukraine. Last week, Anomali, a private intelligence firm, identified a rise in cyberattacks by Russian or Russian-backed groups, including a hacking group known as Primitive Bear, A.J. Nash, an Anomali executive tells US News.
Prime Minister Shmygal is asking government agencies to facilitate more tourist flights to Turkey and to facilitate visits here of Turkish tourists with Covid-19 vaccination certificates. According to the government portal, the Prime Minister calls for “organizing additional flights on popular routes at weekends, as well as opening communication with new cities.” Shortly after Turkish President Recep Erdoğan gave a warm welcome to President Zelenskiy in Istanbul, the Russian government banned Russian tourism to Turkey through June 1, causing half a million people to change their travel plans.
With Belarus increasingly coordinating its military policies with Russia, Ukraine is slapping a 35% duty on MAZ trucks and buses, a move expected to end their import into Ukraine. Belarus’ state-owned Minsk Automobile Plant, or MAZ, has been a major supplier of city buses and oversized trucks for mining operations in Ukraine. Ukraine’s Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade said it decided last week to impose the tariff in retaliation for Belarusian barriers on purchases of Ukrainian made vehicles, largely buses.
Bolshevik, the oldest machine building plant in Kyiv, will probably be sold for the value of its 35 hectares of prime real estate, predicts Dmytro Sennychenko, head of the State Property Fund. Founded 140 years ago by a Swiss engineer, the state-owned factory has fallen on hard times, with production dwindling and bushes growing out of rooves. But, for a developer, the location is gold: fronting on Peremohy, Kyiv’s 10-lane access highway from the west, Bolshevik is next to the Shuliavska metro station and near the Zoo, two parks and Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. Sennychenko predicts earnings from the sale will go to paying $20 million in back taxes and wages.
Eight former prisons are to be sold this year, Justice Minister Denys Malyushka writes on Facebook. Three – in Irpin, Lviv and Odesa – are already in the auction pipeline. The other five are to be transferred shortly to the State Property Fund. Pricing a former prison is proving tricky. For the prison ‘colony’ in Irpin, a fast-growing Kyiv suburb, the starting price was set at $7.8 million. After there were no bidders, the price was cut in half for an electronic auction in April. Once again, there were no bidders.
The first of seven state-owned flour mills is to be privatized through auction on May 7, the State Property Fund reports. Often called ‘bakeries’ these Soviet-era complexes mill wheat and corn into flour and animal feed. Located alongside railroad tracks, the seven ‘kombinats’ have elevators with a total storage capacity of 634,000 tons, about 1% of the nation’s total. Of the seven going up for sale, four are working and three are nonworking. The first auction will be of a working one, Dunayevets Bakery in Khmelnitsky Region. The starting price is $6.7 million.
During the first quarter, the State Property Fund conducted 377 privatization auctions, raising $36 million for the Treasury. By July 1, the Fund plans to complete the sale of all 40 properties of Ukrspirt, the former state alcohol monopoly producer.
After two months of declines, industrial production grew in March, recording a 2.1% increase, the State Statistics Service reports. The March growth was not big enough to offset declines in January and February. The first quarter was down 2% yoy. Last year, industrial production dropped by 5.2% compared to 2019.
Bankers are optimistic about lending prospects for the next 12 months, according to the National Bank of Ukraine’s quarterly survey. Of credit managers polled, 78% predict an increase in the loan portfolio of corporations, 82% predicted an increase in loans to households. These are the highest rates since 2015. Completed on April 9, the survey polled credit managers of 23 banks. These banks represent 88% of the banking system’s assets.
Looking back at the first quarter of this year, the central bank reported: “Demand for loans increased from business and individuals, including mortgage demand was the highest in the history of observations.” Lower interest rates were cited as the main reason for increased borrowing. Last week, the central bank raised Ukraine’s prime rate by 100 basis points, to 7.5%.
- BlaBlaCar Buys Second Ukrainian Company
- Kyiv Rail Station to go Private Concession
- EIB Funds Dnipro Metro Expansion
- Retail Trade up 7.5%
- Business Asks for Vaccines To Boost Economy
BlaBlaCar, the Paris-based road travel platform, has acquired Octobus, a Ukrainian cloud platform that allows bus carriers to automate their business processes. The purchase, for an undisclosed sum, comes as the car-sharing service seeks combine on one platform carpooling and bus offerings for its 90 million users worldwide. In 2019, BlaBlaCar acquired Busfor, Ukraine’s largest aggregator of bus routes. Today, 5 million Ukrainians use BlaBlaCar, making Ukraine one of the three fastest growing countries among the 22 where company operates.
FlixBus inaugurates a 30-hour, 2,300 km bus route – from Lviv to Montpellier, on France’s Mediterranean coast. “Despite serious restrictions for travelers, economic and social ties between Ukraine and Europe are strong today,” said Michal Leman, regional director for the Munich-based bus company. “We see the potential for international travel and continue to develop the Ukrainian network.”
Kyiv’s Central Passenger Station and Vinnytsia Railway Station are being prepared this year for transfer to private operation under concession, Iryna Koshel, Infrastructure Ministry reform director, said last week at Strategy Council’s Ukrainian Transport Infrastructure Week. “The concession period is 25 years,” she said. “It is assumed that within the framework of the concession, new infrastructure will be built – hotels, offices, recreation areas.”
The European Investment Bank will help pay for a 4 km extension to Dnipro’s one-line Metro, adding three new stations, the Finance Ministry reports. With the stations – Teatralna, Tsentralna, and Muzeina – the Metro will reach the center of the city of nearly 1 million people. “The subway line runs from the border of the sleeping area of the city to the railway station and does not reach the central part of the city, which significantly limits the possibilities of its use,” says Deputy Finance Minister Oleksandr Kava. “Completion of construction will significantly reduce the number of traffic jams in the city.” With the EIB funding, the extension is to be completed by 2024.
By this time next year, work should start on Ukraine’s first highway built by a private construction company as a concession, Alexander Kubrakov, head of Ukravtodor, told the Transport Infrastructure Forum. There will be two types of concession: road repair and building a road from scratch. The head of the highway agency said the Rada is preparing bills to change the Budget Code. He predicted: “Construction work on these projects will begin at the end of the year – the beginning of the next one.”
Ukraine plans to increase river cargo five-fold, to 50 million tons a year, aided in part by the new Inland Waterways Law, Nataliya Forsyuk, deputy infrastructure minister, told the Transportation Forum. Although Ukraine has 2,714 kilometers of navigable rivers, the country is using less than 20% of its potential. Favored during the Soviet era, river transport is back in fashion as the country seeks to comply with the EU’s Green Deal to cut greenhouse gases.
Diesel fuel supplies to Ukrzaliznytsia are resuming, the state railroad reported. Earlier last week, UZ warned that it would run out of diesel on Friday. After diesel prices increased this year, suppliers did not want to fulfill long term contracts, Infrastructure Minister Vladyslav Krykliy said on the Mokrik Live TV show. He also said that February’s seizure of a diesel pipeline from pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk affected diesel supply in the country. In February, the price of diesel rose by 12%. Today, it is about $1 a liter.
Cutting into UZ’s scrap metal mountain, the railroad sold 141,000 tons of ferrous scrap during the first quarter, netting almost same amount as during all of last year. Benefitting from high steel prices, UZ made $37 million from 31 auctions on ProZorro.
Retail trade during the first quarter was up 7.5% yoy compared to January-March 2020, according to the State Statistics Service. Retail grew the fastest in: Kyiv Region + 14.6%; Chernivtsi +13.7%; and Vinnytsia +12.5%. Last year, retail grew 8.4% nationwide, compared to 2019. With coronavirus quarantines closing stores for most of April in about half of the country, retail growth is expected to drop in the second quarter.
Fifteen business associations appealed to the government to vaccinate “the part of the population that really wants to get it.” Lead by the European Business Association, the appeal argues: “The sooner the Ukrainian population receives full protection against the virus, the closer the state will get out of the actual crisis situation, and the need to suspend the economy will disappear.” Ukraine has vaccinated less than 1% of the population since February, partly because of refusals by some eligible people.
The government plans to fully vaccinate 11 million adults – about one third of the total – by the end of this year, according to an officially approved blueprint issued by the 2021 National COVID-19 Preventive Vaccination Plan. By this summer, the Health Ministry plans to perform 5.65 vaccinations a month. All the vaccines that Ukraine intends to buy require two jabs, spaced one month apart.
- Ukraine’s Ambition: Feed China
- April’s Rains Help the Farmers: Grain Harvest to Increase by 15%
- Sunflower Oil Gold Rush Prompts ‘Voluntary’ Export Limit
- Government Raises Yields to Sell Bonds
Ukraine could double and even triple grain exports to China, said Mykola Gorbachev, the President of the Ukrainian Grain Association after signing a cooperation agreement with China’s Association of Small and Medium Enterprises. Noting that Ukraine already has exported 10 million tons of grain to China since June, he said: “Today, the lion’s share of grain exports to China is corn and barley.” The next step is to sign bilateral sanitary agreements with China for “wheat, sorghum, peas and other crops,” he said. The two groups agreed to establish a Sino-Ukrainian Council for International Cooperation in Agriculture.
The US will displace Ukraine as China’s top source of corn this year as predicted on the China’s Global Times news website. In the first two months of this year, China’s corn imports increased by 414% yoy, to 4.8 million tons. The US pulled ahead of Ukraine, largely due to the Trump-era US-China trade accord. With the marketing year ending June 30, the US Department of Agriculture has predicted that China will import a record 24 million tons of corn.
Ukraine’s grain exports are down 35% yoy as of last Friday, according to data provided by the Economy Ministry. Drought depressed harvests, lead to the export drop. High food prices worldwide have ensured that Ukraine’s agricultural earnings have taken a smaller hit. Agriculture is Ukraine’s largest source of exports, generating 9% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2019, according to the International Trade Administration, (USA).
Ukraine’s grain exports could rebound by 19% in the upcoming marketing year, reaching 54 million tons, predicted APK-Inform, the agriculture consultancy. Ukraine could export: 29.50 million tons of corn; 20 million tons of wheat; and 4.3 million tons of barley. In the last decade, Ukraine more than quadrupled its wheat exports, reaching a volume of 17.5 million tons last year. Today, Ukraine accounts for almost one tenth of global wheat exports.
April’s soaking rains and a good start to the spring sowing campaign lead Economy Ministry analysts to predict a bumper grain crop of 75 million tons in 2021. This would be 15% over last year’s output. State weather forecasters said last month around 98% of Ukrainian winter wheat crops and 100% of winter barley were in good condition.
Soybeans, a footnote to Ukraine’s grain story, are expected to see a 36% jump in production in the upcoming marketing year, 3.8 million tons. The USDA attributes this to a change in tax laws that make soybean production more profitable. Exports in the upcoming marketing year are expected to reach 2 million tons, up 20% over last year. This would make Ukraine the world’s six largest soy exporter, after Canada.
Ukraine, the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter, is expected to increase sun oil exports by 17% in the upcoming marketing year, to 6.5 million tons. With cooking oil price hikes pushing up Ukraine’s March inflation, the Economy Ministry and the Ukroliyaprom Trade Association agreed Monday to limit sunflower oil exports to 5.38 million tons in the marketing year that ends August 31. Due to high cooking oil prices worldwide, Ukraine’s sunflower oil sales in calendar year 2020 were $5.3 billion, a 24% increase over 2019 sales.
The US Embassy announced that the US Government is providing $155 million in “additional development funding” through USAID. In the heading “Counter Russian Aggression” the US will provide $63 million “to reduce Ukraine’s energy and economic dependence on Russia by advancing connections to Europe’s energy grid and strengthening businesses in the East.” Other business-oriented projects include: promoting transparency, building the land market, safeguarding anti-corruption institutions, expanding judicial reform and supporting the development of online e-government platforms.
Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s new Ambassador to the US flew to Washington. She wrote on Facebook: “For the first time since 1999, I am going to board an airplane with one way ticket.”
The Finance Ministry raised yields on hryvnia bonds by 20 to 73 basis points. The auction raised the equivalent of $164 million which was almost three times the amount of the previous week. In the auction, 96% of purchases were for 1-year bonds, which carried yields of 11.15%, up 40 basis points. The other yields were: 8.5% for 3-year bonds, up 73 basis points; 11.3% for 1.5-year bonds, up 20 basis points; and 12.75% for 6-year bonds, up 25 basis points. More details can be found on the Finance Ministry’s site and on its Facebook page.
Ukraine has passed the peak of its third coronavirus wave, said Maksym Stepanov, Health Minister, in a press conference. Last week, there were 3,500 fewer hospitalizations than the previous week. In the nation, hospitals in the capital, Kyiv, had the highest occupancy level of hospital beds equipped with oxygen – 75%. Three other regional centers were also hardest hit: Odesa – 73%, Kyiv – 70%, and Sumy- 69.5%. The Deputy Health Minister,Viktor Liashko, announced that 367,000 AstraZeneca vaccines arrived Kyiv. In the first two months of the vaccination campaign, 450,000 people have been vaccinated, less than 1% of the population.
- Russia Cuts Diesel Supply to Ukraine
- EBRD, World Bank Lend $222 Million to Ukraine
- Accor to Open 3 Hotels by 2023
- Road to Chornobyl Repaved
Squeezed by Russia and Belarus, Ukrzaliznytsia has only enough diesel to run trains through Friday, the State Railroad provider reported. About half of the railroad’s 20,000 km of track is electrified. UZ moves 82% of Ukraine’s freight, making it the fourth largest freight carrier in Eurasia, after the railways of China, Russia and India.
There is only enough diesel for ‘two or three days’ for two of UZ’s key regional railways – Kyiv-based Southwestern and Dnipro-based Pridneprovskaya – reported the Observer news site. To keep trains running, the Cabinet of Ministers could order the release of fuel from the State Reserve. The lifeblood of an industrial economy, diesel is essential for farm machinery, long haul trucks and Ukraine’s military.
Russia’s Rosneft stopped supplying diesel through pipelines and rail cars to Ukraine on April 1, Reuters reported in a story based on interviews with five traders. Rosneft does not plan to resume supplies next month and Belarus’ Mozyr refinery plans to cut supplies to Ukraine by 37% next month as it undergoes planned maintenance. Ukraine consumes 7 million tons of diesel a year, importing two thirds from Russia and Belarus. In 2019, Ukraine bought four million tons of diesel from Belarus, paying $2.4 billion. Efforts to compensate with sea and rail shipments are not making up for the diesel shortfall, traders advised Reuters.
In addition to using energy as a weapon, President Putin may be taking revenge on President Zelenskiy for nationalizing a diesel pipeline, two months ago, that belonged to Viktor Medvechuk, Russia’s main advocate in Ukraine. Once owned by Russia’s Transneft, the 1,433 km pipeline runs from Russia to Hungary through Ukraine. In 2016, the Ukraine section was sold to Medvedchuk.
“Given the unstable situation with the import of oil products from Belarus and Russia,” Ukraine’s Antimonopoly Committee will be on the alert for price gouging in prices of gasoline and diesel, Olga Pishchanska, Committee Chair, wrote in a column in Ekonomichna Pravda. Noting the Ukraine imports 80% of its petroleum products, she wrote: “We warn operators against potential anti-competitive actions that may adversely affect prices.”
The EBRD is lending the hryvnia equivalent of $65 million to Datagroup, a fast growing telecommunications company, to buy Volia, Ukraine’s leading pay-TV and cable broadband service, the bank announced in a press release. With a majority of shares owned by the fund, Horizon Capital, Datagroup calls itself a leading provider of fiber-optic infrastructure and digital services in Ukraine.
The EBRD is also lending $57 million to the Kernel Group to improve the storage, transportation and export of agricultural commodities, the bank reported in a press release. The loan is part of a $200 million syndication arranged by French investment bank Natixis for Kernel, the world’s leading producer and exporter of sunflower oil. The EBRD announced: “The new financing will help the group enter the new harvest season with sufficient working capital to buy crops and prepare them for export, making full use of its newly expanded infrastructure.”
The World Bank is commencing a new $100 million program for Ukrainian small and medium-sized businesses to receive soft loans for export-oriented projects, reported the Finance Ministry reports. The Cabinet of Ministers formally approved the long-term financing facility.
Ukraine is on track to revive the IMF accord and to receive a $2 billion tranche by September, said Oleh Ustenko, a Presidential Economic Adviser, (Ukraina 24 TV). He said: “The bills we need to pass in order to get the tranche – the judiciary, its reform and the anti-corruption architecture – are currently being considered in parliament.”
Talks with the IMF are progressing and September is a realistic date for the tranche, said Serhiy Marchenko, Finance Minister (LB.ua). “We are now narrowing the range of unresolved issues.” “In January, when there was a mission, there were many issues. Now there are fewer, they should be resolved,” he said.
Last week the Rada made progress on one key IMF demand: restoring jail terms for officials who fail to fully declare their assets. Last October the Constitutional Court called an earlier law allowing for jail terms ‘excessive’ and struck it down. The new bill must be approved in final reading to be signed into law.
Accor, the France-based hospitality company, plans to open three new hotels in Ukraine over the next two years, said Alexis Delaroff, the Director General of Accor New East Europe (Interfax-Ukraine). Ibis Lviv and Ibis & Adagio Kyiv are to open next year, and Novotel Lviv is to follow in 2023. “Accor is already the largest international operator in Ukraine,” Delaroff said. “Odesa, Dnipro, and other cities are also interesting to us. We are constantly looking for new projects and partners.”
Skytrax, the airport review site, surveyed 77 airports for PCR tests and found prices ranging from $8 in Mumbai to $404 in Japan’s Kansai. In the former Soviet space, the cheapest is Minsk: $15. At Kyiv’s two airport – Borispol and Zhulyany – the price for a test is $40. Few American airports offer testing. The cheapest is Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood Airport at $106. The most expensive is San Francisco: $261.
By yesterday marking the 35th anniversary of the Chornobyl fire, Ukravtodor has repaved the 40 km road between Dyliatky checkpoint, the main entrance to the Exclusion Zone, and Pripyat town. “Our task is to put in order the popular tourist routes in three years and provide normal access to the Zone for conservationists, scientists, power engineers and entrepreneurs,” Alexander Kubrakov, Head of the State Highway Agency wrote on a Facebook post. He said that volume of tourists increased 15-fold in five years, from 8,000 in 2015 to 124,000 in 2019. He added: “Moreover, about 80% of them are international visitors.”
- UMG to Build Large Scale Black Sea Grain Terminal
- PrivatBank to Be Privatized
- Windrose to Fly from Kyiv to 12 Ukrainian Cities
UMG Investments plans to build a $150 million grain terminal at the Pivdennyi port, Ukraine’s busiest port on the Black Sea. The terminal will be capable of handling 9 million tons of grain a year, which equates to 20% of Ukraine’s current exports. The terminal is expected to be completed by 2024, said UMG CEO, Andrey Gorokhov, during Strategy Council’s Ukrainian Transport Infrastructure Week. Gorokhov said: “The land has been bought. The project has been completed. The only thing left is to build it.” UMG is part of Rinat Akhmetov’s System Capital Management or SCM.
PrivatBank, Ukraine’s largest bank, will put up for sale ‘soon,’ announced Kyrylo Shevchenko, the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, (GlobalCapital). “The privatization of PrivatBank, which owns 20% of the Ukrainian banking market, will be of interest to the most prestigious international investors, including those from the United States and the European Union,” he said. The December 2016 nationalization of the bank prompted its previous owner, Ihor Kolomoisky, to launch 100 lawsuits. The Central Bank Governor said that he hoped that “the lawsuits will be resolved” by the end of this year. Privatization of PrivatBank is key to the government’s strategy to cut the state share of Ukraine’s banking system from 55% today to 25% in five years time.
The World Steel Association has predicted that Global steel demand is to increase by 6% yoy. Investment worldwide in delayed infrastructure projects will be a boon to Ukraine, which produces 20 million tons of steel a year, placing it 13th place worldwide in production output. China, which consumes slightly more than one half of the world’s steel, is expected to increase demand by 3%. Other demand will come from: the EU and United Kingdom + 10%, to 155 million tons; India +20%, to 106 million tons; US + 8%, to 86.5 million tons; Japan +6.5%, to 56 million tons; Germany + 9.3% to 34 million tons; and Turkey by 19% to 35 million tons.
Within the next year, work is to start on a ‘futuristic’ bus station for Kyiv’s Boryspil airport, reported Avianews. Designed by Kyiv’s Raden architectural firm, the station with a white cloud roof will be located next to the Kyiv Borispol Express train platform, adjacent to Terminal D. The station is to handle buses from Kyiv City as well as buses travelling to the Kyiv Region.
Windrose Airline, Ukraine’s largest domestic carrier, has added flights from June 1 departing from Kyiv Boryspil to Chernivtsi, Uzhgorod and Kryvyi Rih, President Zelenskiy’s home town. One-way tickets at priced at $50, and Windrose will fly from its Kyiv hub to 12 Ukrainian cities. Owned by Ihor Kolomoisky’s Privat Group, Windrose uses Terminal D, the same terminal at Kolomoisky’s Ukraine International Airlines. Claiming to have “the youngest and most modern fleet in Ukraine” Windrose uses its newly acquired fleet of four ATR 72-600 turboprops. These Franco-Italian regional planes carry 74 passengers and have a range of 1,500 km. The longest possible commercial flight in Ukraine, from Kharkiv to Uzhgorod, is 1,000 km.
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June 17, 2021 (14:00-15:00 CET)
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