- Corona Controls
- EU Wine Comes in Duty Free
Last Friday Ukraine started a 17-day, nationwide Covid lockdown, about half as strong as the one last spring. In advance of Monday’s return to work, companies and government agencies have been asked to shift as much as possible to remote work.
Closed will be: restaurants, cafes, schools (except for kindergartens), gyms, cinemas, theaters, stores that don’t sell food and shopping centers, with the exception of food stores.
Open will be: airports, trains, all mass transit in Kyiv (including the Metro), food stores, pharmacies, gas stations, hospitals, hotels, banks, post offices, car repair shops and hairdressers (upon appointment). Stores will be allowed to sell alcohol, cigarettes, pet food and fertilizers.
Coronavirus infections are common in Ukraine. Nearly 9,000 new cases were reported last Thursday, including 731 new cases in Kyiv. Health Minister Maksym Stepanov told reporters: “We really need a lockdown from Jan. 8 to 24 in order to curb the wave and to get through until April-May, without the introduction of new severe quarantine measures, which could damage our economy.”
This spring, the Kyiv School of Economics launches two new think tanks – on Corporate Governance and Government Relations, KSE President Tymofiy Milovanov, writes on Facebook. Looking back on 2020, he writes that the school recruited a record number of new students – 140 – for its MBA program; a total of 250 students for all master’s programs, and 1,300 students for classes. Looking ahead, he writes: “We have a plan to almost double these figures in 2021.” Dragon Capital is investing $5 million to renovate a 4,500 square meter office building on Mykoly Shapka 3, in western Kyiv, near the US Embassy. KSE predicts the eight-story building will have space for 600 students.
One week ago, EU wines started to enter Ukraine duty free, a boon for European exporters and a challenge for Ukrainian winemakers Even with the duty of 30-40-euro cents a liter, Ukraine was importing 10 times the volume of wines is exports. In 2019, Ukraine imported $147 million worth of wine and exported $12 million.
“We suffer from the dominance and rapid growth of imports of cheap and not always high-quality wines from Europe,” Ihor Radomiselsky, vice-president of the Chateau Chizay wine company, tells Ukrinform. His Berehove, Zakarpattia winery produces about 1.3 million bottles from 272 hectares of vineyards. “Importing wine to Ukraine in recent years has been a very lucrative business. The removal of the duty will make it very profitable. This means that it is European importers, growers and winemakers who will earn additional millions of dollars, which could be earned and invested in the development of Ukrainian wine industry enterprises.”
To help small vineyards, the government is cutting red tape for licenses and is starting to subsidize the purchase of elite seedlings, winemaking equipment and drip irrigation, Ivan Petrov, agrarian policy director for the Odesa Regional Administration, tells Ukrinform. Irrigation is increasingly important with the rising temperatures in southern Ukraine. Ukraine’s largest winemaking region, Odesa produces about 200,000 tons of grapes from 27,000 hectares. A few months ago, winemakers dumped several tons of grapes on an Odesa highway to protest the market opening.
- Reserves Hit Highest Level in Eight Years
- Corona Lockdown Started – Two Cities Opt Out
- France’s Macron and More European Leaders Expected in Kyiv in 2021
- Pivdennyi Displaces Odesa as Pearl of the Black Sea
- Road Paving Projects Will Make Driving the Carpathians Fun
Ukraine ended the year with $29.1 billion in reserves, a 15% yoy increase, the National Bank of Ukraine reported. The highest level in eight years, today’s reserves are enough to cover five months of imports, an ample cushion over the three-month level seen as adequate.
Alfa-Bank Ukraine’s Oleksiy Blinov wrote: “This strong increase was delivered via massive FX debt placements by the Ministry of Finance. Overall, MinFin borrowed a net of $2.6 billion in December.”
In the first government bond auction of the new year, the Finance Ministry raised the equivalent of $308 million – 37% of the amount raised the week before. Choosing among four hryvnia bonds – 3-months, 1-year, 2-year and 3-years – 90% of buyers opted for 3 months at 10%. Yields were virtually unchanged from last week.
Concorde Capital’s Evgeniya Akhtyrko writes: “The drop in auction receipts after the record-high results of December is not surprising. Nonetheless, UAH 9 billion in receipts is quite a strong result for a ‘typical’ auction. The market’s skew towards bonds with the lowest term of maturity continues to reflect the perception of high risk among bond buyers.”
Dragon Capital writes: “With the 2021 budget’s deficit target set at 5.5% of GDP, government borrowing needs will remain high this year, keeping it reliant on cooperation with the IMF.”
Ukraine’s 16-day lockdown of restaurants and shopping malls started Friday. Confirmed new coronavirus cases totaled 6,911 yesterday morning – one half the daily average of one month ago. In light of the drop, Ternopil City Mayor Serhiy Nadal said his city of 223,000 people will ignore the lockdown. Anatoliy Bondarenko, mayor of Cherkasy, a slightly larger city, says he will recommend to his City Council to ignore the lockdown. Nationwide, shopping centers will lose $60 million in rent and their stores will lose $400 million in revenue, Maksym Havriushyn, head of the national Council of Shopping Centers, told Interfax-Ukraine.
In face of business pressure to soften or shorten the lockdown, Health Minister Maksym Stepanov told reporters: “The Health Ministry is against the postponement of the quarantine, against its cancellation.” He said of the 23,000 people hospitalized for Covid, 10% are seriously ill and “about 200 people die from the disease every day.” Stepanov denounced as “political PR” a move by Biolik, a Kharkiv pharmaceutical firm, to register in Ukraine Sputnik V, the Russian vaccine. Stepanov told Reuters: “It would be very mild to say that we are not sure about the Russian vaccine. We do not know how the research was carried out.”
In 2020, 20 Ukrainian films backed by the State Film Agency are now screening in cinemas, and 92 new film projects were launched, Oleksandr Tkachenko, Culture and Information Policy Minister, told reporters in an online press conference. All theaters are closed through Jan. 24. During the second half of last year, many cinemas stayed open, selling a maximum of half of tickets in each hall. Attendance was down sharply compared to 2019.
French President Emmanuel Macron is one of a string of Western leaders expected to visit Ukraine this year. Today, Moldova’s new, pro-EU President Maia Sandu will visit Kyiv, the first such visit by a Moldovan president in four years. Later this month, Sweden’s Foreign Minister, Ann Linde, visit Ukraine in her new capacity as chair of the OSCE. Macron is expected in the first half of this year, reports DN.ua, citing Ihor Zhovka, Zelenskiy’s deputy chief of staff. Zhovka also said that Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is expected to visit Kyiv this year.
Odesa region’s Pivdennyi port consolidated its position as Ukraine’s premier sea port last year, increasing cargo by 14.5% yoy, and accounting for 39% for all of Ukraine’s waterborne trade. Ukraine’s five largest ports accounted for 92% of its 159 million tons of water borne cargo, reports the Sea Port Authority. But growth was only at Pivdennyi (formerly Yuzhny), where cargo grew to 62 million tons, and at Mariupol, on the Azov, where cargo was up 8% yoy, to 7 million tons. At Mykolaiv, cargo was down 10%, to 30 million tons. At Odesa region’s two other big ports, cargo was down by 9% at Chornomorsk, to 24 million tons; and by 8% at Odesa, to 23 million tons.
To boost cargo on the Dnipro River, the Infrastructure Ministry plans to introduce a liberalized regime where captains of foreign flag vessels have to simply email an application for a port call to the Maritime Administration within three working days of the intended visit. This will replace the current system of applying for one-time permits, a cumbersome and often costly system that effectively closes the Dnipro to most foreign flag cargo ships.
President Zelenskiy last week signed the law “On Inland Water Transport,” legislation that opens the Dnipro to foreign flag vessels and allows for the creation of a dedicated fund to rebuild the locks and docks. Artem Kovalev, the Rada member who pushed for the law, has warned: “The river infrastructure is 75% worn out.” With the changes, he predicts, river cargo will triple to 30 million tons a year in 2024, the end of the Zelenskiy presidency. He said this cargo level would generation $500 million in taxes, $625 million in economic activity and 10,000 new jobs.
Provided Covid–19 vaccines are distributed extensively, the world economy will rebound this year by 4%, nearly recovering from its 4.3% fall last year, predicts the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects forecast. According to the World Bank, growth rates in 2021 will be: US – 3.5%; Eurozone – 3.6%; Ukraine – 3%; Japan – 2.5; and China by 7.9%.
Ukrzaliznytsia increased its freight traffic in December by 7.4% yoy, transporting 26.7 million tons of cargo, reports the state railroad’s press service. By another measure, freight turnover was up 4.4% yoy, to 14.4 billion tonnes. A key indicator of economic activity, UZ moves half of Ukraine’s cargo.
As part of the ‘Small Carpathian Circle,’ a mountain driving circuit through Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Zakarpattia regions, Lviv region plans to rebuild 75 km of mountain roads this year, including upgrading 37 bridges over mountain rivers. Lviv is spending $7 million on this project, the same amount as last year. Oleh Bereza, head of Lviv Region’s Road Service, cites the tourism impact, saying: “Thanks to the Small Carpathian Circle project, we will not only connect the three regions of the Western region of Ukraine with good roads, it will also allow us to revive the central part of the Ukrainian Carpathians.” The total project will cost $100 million, estimates Ukravtodor, the national highway agency.
- Ukraine’s Sea Ports Buck World Recession, Retain Cargo Levels
- EU Plans to Spend €100 Million to Open Five New Poland-Ukraine Border Crossings
- Hryvnia Expected to Strengthen by 2% in H1
- 2020 Was Kyiv’s Hottest Year Since Record Keeping Started in 1881
Despite the global recession, the volume of goods going through Ukraine’s seaports was virtually unchanged in 2020 compared to 2019, according to Ukraine’s Sea Port Authority. Last year, Ukraine’s ports handled 159 million tons of cargo, 0.7% less than in 2019. Grain exports were down 12%, to 48 million tons. Ore exports were up 18.5%, to 44 million tons. Overall exports ended the year up 1.5%, to 123 million tons. Imports were down 8.6%, to 24 million tons. Transit was down 9%, to 10 million tons. Coastal was up 11%, to 2.4 million tons. And containers were up 4%, to 1 million.
The combination of dropping grain exports and expanded terminal capacity may force down costs in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, reported AgriCensus in a story headlined: “Ukraine’s terminals compete as grain exports fall short.” This year, poor harvests have contributed to a 15% drop in grain exports. Meanwhile, grain handling capacity has increased by 20% over the last three years in Ukraine’s ports. The London-based news site wrote that this “could drive higher competition between terminals and slash transhipment costs in the Black Sea country, which is one of the world’s biggest exporters of corn and feed wheat.”
Despite Ukraine’s recession, sales of new cars in Ukraine fell by only 3% yoy, to 85,500 in 2020, reports Ukrautoprom, the car industry association. In December was the year’s record month, with Ukrainians buying 9,801 cars. With Ukraine’s lowered import taxes and the EU’s gradual phase out of diesel cars, first time registrations of used imports are about four times registrations of new cars. In 2020, Ukrainians registered about 350,000 imported used cars.
Cracking down on overloaded trucks, Highway Safety inspectors stopped 700,000 vehicles in 2020, fining 14,000 drivers nearly $5 million, reports Infrastructure Minister Vladyslav Krikliy. This year, Krikliy said, the government plans to continue to digitize the work of the Highway Safety agency “to eliminate the human factor” and to triple the number of Weight-in-Motion sensor devices, to almost 120.
The EU plans to invest €100 million in opening five new Ukraine-Poland border check points in Lviv region, according to Maksym Kozytsky, head of Lviv Regional State Administration. To be completed over the next five years, the crossings represent a 50% increase in the checkpoints between Poland and western Ukraine. “These additional checkpoints will link Ukraine with Europe,” Kozytsky said, adding that Ukraine’s government plans to spend $3.5 million on improving access roads.
Passenger traffic through Lviv Airport dropped by 60% yoy in 2020, to 878,000 passengers, Tetyana Romanovska, the airport director, tells Avianews. By promoting Lviv as an air cargo hub, the state-owned airport managed to turn a small profit and to keep all its staff, she said. By comparison, Lviv handled 2.2 million passengers in 2019, making it Ukraine’s third busiest airport, after Kyiv Boryspil and Kyiv Sikorsky.
To revive aircraft production at Antonov, Ukreximbank is loaning $105 million to the state aircraft manufacturer to build three An-178 cargo jets for Ukraine’s Army, Yevhen Metzger, chairman of the state bank, writes on Facebook. Airplane delivery is planned for 2023. Concurrently, Antonov is building an An-178 for Peru’s National Police and is negotiating the sale of a second plane. Airplane building at Kyiv’s Antonov largely stopped in 2014 as the company worked to make or source parts to replace parts from Russia. Company officials say this substitution process is largely complete.
Ukraine’s hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021, thanks to foreign-currency inflows from exports and renewed interest by foreign investors in Ukrainian local bonds, a Reuters monthly poll of 13 analysts indicated. Last year, foreign investors cut their bond portfolio by almost $2 billion, or 42%. In the second half of December, foreign investors reversed, buying $368 million worth of bonds. This year, forecasts of continued strong prices for metals and grains coupled with resumed IMF lending make for a median June exchange rate forecast of UAH 27.60/$1, about 2% stronger than the current level. Last year, the hryvnia lost 17% of its value, largely in March.
The analysts also forecast Ukraine’s economy will grow 4% in 2021, after an expected decline by 4.8% in 2020. Inflation will be 6.1%, compared to 5% expected in 2020.
To ease the impact of the coronavirus recession, the government last year loaned $615 million under its program, „Affordable loans 5-7-9%”. Of the 7,575 loans, 62% of the money went to refinance existing loans at lower rates.
Ukraine’s average annual air temperature in 2020 exceeded the average long-term level by 2.2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 F, reaching a record high of 10.7 degrees C, or 51.3 F, Ukraine’s state-run weather forecasting body said. Average annual rainfall across Ukraine was 8% lower than the norm. The lowest levels were registered in eastern Donetsk, Luhansk and Mykolayiv regions. With harvests dependent on the weather, Ukraine accounted for about 16% of global grain exports in the 2019/20 marketing season.
Last year was Kyiv’s hottest since weather recording keeping started in 1881, reports the Borys Sreznevsky Central Geophysical Observatory. In 2020, the average temperature in Kyiv rose to 10.9°C, or 51.6 F, the hottest on record. Eleven months of the year had average temperatures higher than the climatic norm. Only May was colder.
Half of Ukrainians are optimistic about 2021, according to a nationwide poll completed by Kyiv’s Rating Sociological Group. Of 2,500 people interviewed, 52% expect the new year will be better than 2020, 27% do not expect changes and 18% say it will be worse. Young people, women, residents of Kyiv and of western Ukraine were the biggest optimists.
- Covid Recedes
- Lockdown Started last Friday
- Vaccines Are Coming – from China, Poland, and COVAX
- Ukrainians Flee Cash for Cards
- Kyiv Enjoys Crimea Weather
Official numbers indicate that Ukraine’s coronavirus epidemic has receded according to official numbers. Hospitalizations are down 20% from the early December level of 28,500, Prime Minister Shmyhal said. Daily new confirmed cases are running between 4,100 and 8,000 – between one quarter and one half of the peak of 16,300 at the end of November.
Currently, only one third of the nation’s 77,000 Covid beds are occupied, Health Minister Maksym Stepanov reported yesterday. This is a sharp contrast to November when Covid hospitals in Kyiv were full and turned away patients.
Confirmed cases may have dropped because people with mild cases do not want to go through the bother and expense of being tested. In addition, over the last three months, 6% of Ukraine’s population fell ill with traditional influenza and acute respiratory viral infection. Some of these could have been Covid cases. For example, in October, 1,998 people died of influenza and pneumonia in Ukraine, nearly four times the 579 who died one year earlier, reports OpenDataBot, citing State Statistics Service data on cause of death.
“There is a probability that we actually have fewer people now being infected with this coronavirus, and it is possible that the first wave is coming to an end,” Serhiy Komistarenko, a member of Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, told RBK Ukraine last week. “And it would be good if the second wave did not start at all – or began much later.” To date, 5.6 million PCR tests have been administered, 1.1 million Ukrainians have fallen ill, and almost 19,000 are known to have died.
In face of falling infection numbers, business groups are pressuring the government to soften the lockdown through Sunday January 24. Last week, the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine appealed to lift restriction on supermarkets which will be forced to curtain off non-food items. “From January 8, even in supermarkets it will be forbidden to sell a significant part of everyday goods: household chemicals and tools, clothing, presses, light bulbs, batteries, children’s products for education,” the Chamber said in a statement.
To prepare for economic pain from the lockdown, the government has distributed $130 million in grants to almost half a million small business owners and their employees, Prime Minister Shmygal reported by video link to President Zelenskiy.
The government is heeding Health Minister Stepanov’s call to stick with the shutdown. “Many people ask whether we plan to postpone or cancel the quarantine, as the number of cases has been falling,” he told reporters. “With regard to the strict quarantine from January 8 to January 24, we are not going to introduce any changes.” During a video meeting with President Zelenskiy, Stepanov predicted that cases will increase after the holidays.
Ukraine will only start to return to normal this spring, Viktor Lyashko, chief sanitary doctor, predicts in an interview with Ukraina 24 TV. “We will start out a step-by-step return to our usual rhythm of life in April,” predicts Lyashko who is also Deputy Health Minister. “[Until then] We will not completely get rid of anti-epidemic restrictions and such harsh quarantines.”
In coming weeks, Ukraine hopes to receive almost 20 million doses of coronavirus vaccines, enough to vaccinate 10 million people, about one third of the adult population this year. The Health Ministry’s goal is to inoculate at least 50% of Ukraine’s 36.5 million people by the end of 2022. All vaccines require two shots. Here are the numbers:
China’s Sinovac Biotech: Last week Ukraine’s Ministry of Health signed a $34 million ProZorro contract for delivery of 1.9 million doses. Health Minister Maksym Stepanov predicts the first vaccines will arrive next month.
COVAX – President Zelenskiy wrote on Telegram: “We are working to increase supply through COVAX [from 8 million] to 16 million doses.” COVAX is a multinational collaboration organize to ensure equitable distribution around the globe of several coronavirus vaccines.
Poland has offered to transfer 1.5 million vaccine doses to Ukraine, Yevhen Enin, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, told Interfax-Ukraine.
The Covid economy accelerated Ukrainians’ flight from cash in 2020, indicate figures from PrivatBank, Ukraine’s largest bank. Last year, Ukrainians’ transactions with PrivatBank terminals increased by 31% yoy, to the hryvnia equivalent of $11.5 billion. Spending in pharmacies was up 40%, to almost $1 billion. Spending food stores was up 48%, to almost $6 billion. Spending on clothes and shoes was down 1.6%, to almost $900 million.
Surfing the net during lockdowns, Ukrainians boosted visits to Ukrainian Wikipedia last year by 21% yoy. In 2020, 855.1 million pages were visited, raising Ukrainian Wikipedia to the rank of 17th most popular worldwide, according to the Ukrainian Wikipedia editor’s blog.
- Strong Iron and Grain Prices Help Cut Trade Deficit
- Gas Alternatives Start in the Adriatic
- Dragon Buys a Bank
- Central Bank Buys Dollars
Despite the global economic recession, Ukraine’s trade deficit dropped in half last year, from $10.22 billion to $4.9 billion in 2020, Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s Trade Representative, wrote on Facebook. Helped by strong commodity prices, Ukraine’s exports were down only 1.7%, to $49.3 billion, he writes. In the month of December, exports were up 18% yoy, to $4.9 billion. Kachka writes: “The secret of December numbers is pretty simple – metal and ore prices are rising worldwide at a crazy rate.”
Despite a poor harvest, exports of the top three grains – corn, wheat and barley – were down only 2.3% yoy in dollar terms, to $9.4 billion for 2020. “Due to the reduction in the harvest, physical exports are smaller than last year,” wrote Kachka, who is also deputy minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture. “But this decrease in physical exports is compensated for price increases.”
Russia cut its volume of gas pumped across Ukraine by 38% in 2020, compared to the previous year. Although Gazprom pumped 55.8 billion cubic meters through Ukraine’s east-west pipeline system, Russia’s state gas export monopoly will pay for the full 65 bcm contracted for 2020, reports the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine. This year through 2024, Gazprom is contracted to ship 40 bcm a year through Ukraine.
In reverse, gas transportation from Europe to Ukraine hit almost 16 bcm last year, 12% more than in 2019 and 27% more than the annual average for 2016-18. About 10 bcm went into storage as 52 Ukrainian companies and 30 foreign ones took advantage of Ukraine’s new ‘short-haul’ and ‘customs warehouse’ storage regimes. With the start of the European winter heating system, draw down from storage started in November. Today, EU gas prices are at a 2-year high. Next April, Ukraine will have 7 bcm of available storage space, forecasts Ukrtransgaz.
Pumped from the Tristar Ruby, a US cargo of LNG from Cove Point, Maryland inaugurated last weekend Croatia’s first liquefied natural gas landing terminal at Krk, an island in the northern Adriatic. POWERGLOBE, a Qatar company, has booked the terminal’s full capacity through 2023, largely with gas from the US and Qatar, reports CEEnergy News. With the terminal’s capacity equal to Croatia’s current consumption of 2.9 bcm, almost all from Gazprom, Ukraine is negotiating with Croatia and Hungary to send the US and Qatar gas to Ukraine, Serhiy Makogon, head of Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System Operator, writes on his Facebook page. Krk is about 1,000 km southwest of Chop, Zakarpattia.
Separately, Azeri gas has started moving through the new Trans Adriatic Pipeline, Interfax-Azerbaijan reports from Baku, citing Azerbaijan’s Energy Ministry. This 878 km pipeline picks up Azeri gas from Turkey’s terminus of the Trans-Anatolia Pipeline and then pushes it across northern Greece, Albania, under the Adriatic and, finally to Italy, near Brindisi. Competing with Russian pipelines, the Azeri pipeline is designed to transport 10 bcm a year from the Shah Deniz field in the Caspian. The pipeline design allows for compressors to double capacity to 20 bcm. For comparison, Ukraine imported about 14 bcm for internal consumption in 2020.
Tomasz Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital, and Ivan Svitek, former Chairman of Alfa Bank Ukraine, have signed an agreement to buy Unex Bank from Vadim Novinsky’s Smart Holding. “The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine has already approved the agreement,” Smart Holding said. Last year, Fiala and Svitek, both Czechs, tried to buy Idea Bank, but could not come to terms with the Polish owner over price, reports Interfax-Ukraine. The price for Unex has not been disclosed. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, Unex has $28 million in assets, making it rank 64th among the 74 banks operating in Ukraine.
To prevent a strengthening of the hryvnia, the central bank bought a net $335.5 million on the interbank market in December. By contrast, during the whole year, the bank bought a net $1.1 billion, reports the National Bank of Ukraine. The Bank intervenes to prevent exchange rate volatility. The 2021 budget is predicated on an average exchange rate this year of UAH 29.1 per dollar, a 3% devaluation from today’s rate of 28.27.
Ukraine’s minimum wage increased per 1st of January by $35. On Dec. 1, it increases to $230. With the minimum wage largely used to calculate pensions, Ukraine’s average monthly wage is $480.
Real wages were up 8% yoy in November, reports the State Statistics Service. Nationally, the average nominal wage was $404. In Kyiv, the wage was 54% higher – $622. Nationwide, the biggest regional increases were: Luhansk and Chernivsti + 21%; Ternopil and Mykolaiv + 20%; Khmelnytsky and Rivne +18.5%; Ivano-Frankivsk and Kherson +18%, and Sumy and Kirovohrad +15%.
The original English version is from our partner UBN – Ukraine Business News. For more information and news archive, go to: www.ubn.news.
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