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  • German-US Nord Stream 2 Agreement Deal Draws Flak
  • The President’s Consolation Prize: White House Visit Aug. 30
  • Russia-Ukraine Trade Down 84%
  • An Industrial Park for Every Region

 

Germany and the US unveiled their compromise on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, eliciting a wave of criticism from German Greens and US Republicans. Critics complained of a lack of language specifying when and how Germany would take the costly move of shutting down the pipeline to respond to Russian pressure on Ukraine. Washington briefers on the transaction said that the language was left deliberately vague so as not to help Russia prepare countermeasures.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel telephoned Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the compromise, an agreement designed to allow the €9.5 billion pipeline to open this fall. With Angela Merkel’s plan to step down after the September 27 Bundestag elections, the Greens, her party’s main opponents, were scathing. “At a time when Putin is putting massive rhetorical and military pressure on Ukraine and once again questioning the country’s sovereignty, Washington and Berlin are sending the wrong signals to Moscow,” said Oliver Krischer, the Vice-Chairman of the party’s parliamentary group, and Manuel Sarrazin, the spokesman for Eastern European policy.

In Washington, Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that he had no doubt Russia “will use the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a weapon of coercion against Ukraine and transatlantic energy security as soon as it is operational. Promises to invest in future Ukrainian energy projects and ambiguous threats of consequences won’t change that reality.” In the Senate, John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican, said that the pipeline puts a “stranglehold” on Europe. “Protecting this Russian trap is not in our national security interest.”


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U.S. Senator Jim Risch, a ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and sanctions legislation co-author, said this agreement “was negotiated without the participation and consent of key allies like Ukraine and Poland, and does not guarantee a single concrete consequence if Russia uses Nord Stream 2 as the geopolitical weapon it is.” In response, the Undersecretary of Statem Victoria Nulandm told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Germany will take actions at the national level and press for effective measures at the European level, including sanctions, to limit Russian export capabilities in the energy sector.”

Although the pipeline is 98% complete, a bipartisan group of Washington lawmakers told Politico that they are considering blocking must-pass appropriations legislation this fall if the Biden administration continues to withhold sanctions on the project. Last year, Ukraine earned $2.1 billion in transit fees for moving Gazprom gas from Russia to the EU.

Derek Chollet, the adviser to the US Secretary of State, met with Prime Minister Shmyhal and Foreign Minister Kuleba in Kyiv, but not with President Zelenskiy. At the end of the day, the White House announced that President Zelenskiy’s long-awaited visit to the White House will take place August 30. White House Press Secretary Jan Psaki said: “The visit will affirm the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea, our close cooperation on energy security, and our backing for President Zelenskiy’s efforts to tackle corruption and implement a reform agenda based on our shared democratic values.”

The Prime Minister Shmygal told reporters last week that Russia-Ukraine trade dropped by nearly 84% over the last six years. Two-way trade dropped from $37 billion in 2014 to $7 billion last year. “Trade turnover between Russia and Ukraine is gradually declining,” he said at a joint press conference with visiting European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič. “At the same time, the volume of trade [with] Europe has grown to over 40%, which means it has grown by more than fivefold.”

During the first half of this year, Ukraine’s seaports handled 16.7% less cargo that during the first half of last year. Of the 66 million tons of cargo, the biggest decline was in ores – down 16.3% to 18.8 million tons – and grain – down 27.6% to 16.9 million tons. Due to high world commodity prices, Ukraine this year made more money exporting less ore and grain than last year. Imports were down only 10%, to 11 million tons. Containers were down only 2% to 506,186.

Enjoying a 20-fold increase in scrap metal export revenues during the first half of this year, Ukraine’s scrap metal dealers association, UAVtormet, is fighting a proposal by Ukrmetallurgprom, the metals industry association, to ban exports of scrap. The year’s run up in world metal prices impacted Turkey, the destination for 97% of Ukraine’s scrap exports. Ukraine’s steel industry does not want to match the prices of scrap in Turkey, currently $412-455 a ton, reports Argus Media. During the first half of this year, Ukraine’s ferrous scrap metal exported increased 14-fold, to 230,970 tons, earning exporters $83 million.

The government aims to build 25 new industrial parks – one for each region – by the end of President Zelenskiy’s term in office, summer 2024, said Oleksiy Chernyshov, the Minister of Community and Territorial Development. Speaking at the presidential Ukraine.30 Labor Resources forum, he said: “This will create hundreds of thousands of jobs in related sectors of the economy. Industrial parks are also platforms for investment by Ukrainians from abroad. Their advantages, in particular, are a low “entry barrier” and convenience for new investments.”

Of the 50 existing industrial parks, only 10 are working, said Chernyshov. This year, the government is investing $3 million to build infrastructure in four industrial parks. To jump start the rest, the Rada recently passed on first reading a bill that would, depending on levels of exports, compensate companies in industrial parks for up to 50% of the cost of connecting to the power grid and up to 70% of initial capital expenditures and loan interest payments. Two more bills in the Rada would give companies in industrial parks 10-year tax holidays from income tax and from VAT tax on imported capital goods. These bills would empower communities to give real estate tax breaks. Chernyshov predicted: “They will be adopted in the fall.”

By September, Ukraine expects to receive 13 million more Covid-19 vaccine doses, Prime Minister Shmygal told a cabinet meeting. This would be enough to fully vaccinate 6.5 million people, about 20% of Ukraine’s adults. To date, 1.5 million Ukrainians have been fully vaccinated.

 

 

  • Polish, Czech Economies Depend on Ukrainian Workers
  • Heat Wave Increases Electricity Use, Threatens Farming

 

The Finance Ministry sold $285 million worth of bonds, 21% less than the previous week. The sale covered half of UAH 15.6 billion in principal repayments. Interest rates on all six bonds were unchanged from the previous week, the Ministry reported. They ranged from 10.99% for 1-year hryvnia bonds to 12.59% for 5-year hryvnia bonds. The Ministry also sold €8 million worth of 1-year Euro bonds at 2.5%. Demand may have been weak as investors were waiting for the meeting of the central bank’s rate setting board.

Ukraine’s central bank is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 7.5%, expecting inflation will slow down in coming months, indicates a Reuters poll of analysts. At the meeting of the monetary policy board of the National Bank of Ukraine, ten of 14 Ukrainian analysts forecast no rate change. The other four analysts predicted the rate will go up to 8%. Ukraine’s annual inflation rate climbed from 6.1% in January to 9.5% in May 2021.

About 17% of Ukraine’s workforce may be working outside the country.  Between three and five million Ukrainian work abroad, Ella Libanova, demographer for the National Academy of Sciences, told at a forum. Let’s settle on four million. Trading Economics puts Ukraine’s workforce at 19.5 million. That would make a potential total national workforce of 23.5 million. Four million abroad = 17%. With Ukrainian migrant workers sending home $1 billion a month, Ukraine increasingly looks like the Philippines of Eastern Europe.

About 1.5 million Ukrainians work in Poland, which is three times the number of working in the country in 2014, said Andriy Deschytsia, Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, speaking at the Ukraine 30. Human Capital Forum. Over the period 2014 – 2021, the number of Ukrainian-owned companies has increased exponentially: from 680 in 2014 to 16,000 today. With many Ukrainians planning to go home to retire, the two countries are working a bilateral social security pact. About 50,000 Ukrainian students also study at Polish universities.

Without Ukrainian workers, the Czech economy would misfire, said Yevhen Perebiynis, Ukraine’s ambassador to the Czech Republic. “Without Ukrainian workers – and this is confirmed by almost everyone – the Czech Republic today would not be able to live,” he said. “Its economy would simply stop.” Currently, there are almost 180,000 Ukrainian citizens working in the Czech Republic and an addition to 53,000 Czech citizens of Ukrainian origin. Ukrainians now account for about 2% of the 10.6 million people living in the Czech Republic.

With an unemployment rate below 3%, the Czech Republic adopted a “Ukraine Project,” quadrupling the annual quota of work visas to 40,000. According to Czech employers, Ukrainian workers are very hardworking, they learn quickly, there is practically no language barrier and therefore they are highly valued here,” said the Ukrainian Ambassador to Prague.

The number of Ukrainians citizens working in Portugal has dropped by two thirds over the last decade – from 100,000 to 30,000 today, said Inna Ognivets, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Portugal. “This is mainly due not to the massive departure from the country, but primarily to the acquisition of Portuguese citizenship,” she said.

Economy Minister Oleksii Lyubchenko summed up, telling the forum: “We are leaders in Europe in terms of the number of able-bodied people working abroad.” Looking ahead, he said: “We must replace the phrase ‘I want to leave’ with ‘I want to return.“

Ukraine’s adult population is divided in thirds, said Lyubchenko. There are 11 million people officially employed. There are also 11 million people who are paid in cash, off the books. And there are 11 million retirees who receive social security payments. “One person cannot work for two,” he said, referring to the state pension system. Cash salaries amount to $18 billion a year.

Due to last week’s heat wave, electricity consumption grew by almost 6%, reported Ukrenergo, the national power transmission company. With the average daily temperatures increasing by 2°С, air conditioning use surged. Compared to the same week last year, electricity usage was up by 11%.

With more people swimming to escape the hot weather, 265 people drowned in Ukraine in the first three weeks of July. This represents one third of all 808 water deaths so far this year. Last Saturday, Kyiv authorities banned all swimming on city beaches, due to heavy pollution and algae blooms.

Climate change means that agricultural zones are shifting north “by hundreds of kilometers,” Agriculture Minister Roman Leshchenko said speaking at a farming forum in Kyiv. “The temperature has risen by more than 1 degree Celsius in 10 years – this has a very serious impact on the agricultural area,” he said. “With such dynamics as today, we can reach a situation where 2/3 of the territory of Ukraine will become a zone of risky agriculture.” As palliative measures, he recommended: irrigation, low till farming and planting of forest windbreaks to minimize erosion.

Starting today, Covid-19 vaccination are open to all Ukrainian adults who sign up through the Diia app. Health Minister Victor Lyashko said. “You can get vaccinated at your nearest vaccination point, or mass vaccination center,” he said. Ukraine administers four kinds of vaccines; AstraZeneca, Moderna, Pfizer, and Sinovac. The country is reporting about 500 new Covid cases a day – one tenth the level of two months ago.

Expecting a surge of the Delta variant in September, the Health Ministry is proposing a 14-day self-isolation period for unvaccinated foreign visitors. People who have negative PCR tests would have only seven days in isolation. Prime Minister Shmyhal recommends creating vaccination stations at border crossings.

 

 

  • Labor Exports Stay Strong
  • Poland Courts Ukrainians Workers
  • Germany Competes
  • GDP Grows by 6% in Q2

 

The corona virus pandemic is not deterring Ukrainians from working in the EU. Last year, the number of Ukrainians officially working in Poland rose by 8%, to 775,000. Remittances from Ukrainians working abroad – largely in the EU – is expected to increase this year by 8%, to $13 billion, predicts the National Bank of Ukraine. Labor is Ukraine’s second largest export, after food, and ahead of metals.

Employment experts estimate that the real number of Ukrainians working in Poland is 1-1.5 million. Vasily Voskoboynik, the President of the Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, estimates that 3-5 million Ukrainian citizens now work abroad. For Ukrainian blue collar workers, the option of working in the EU is increasingly mainstream. Every six months, EWL Group, a Ukrainian-Polish job placement agency, polls Ukrainian workers in Poland. In September, 28% of respondents said it was their first time working abroad. By May, this portion had increased to 44%.

Poland is giving more autonomy to regional labor offices to issue work permits to foreigners, which cuts time and red tape, and is digitizing the whole process, said Ivona Michalek, Poland’s deputy Minister of Development, Labor and Technology (Dziennik.pl). She said that: “We want foreigners to be able to come to Poland easily, to start working here, especially in specialties where there is a shortage of labor in Poland, where Poles are reluctant to work.”

While tourists are discouraged from visiting Poland during the pandemic, Poland now offers labor migrants free vaccinations at six land border crossings with Ukraine. Over the last five years, the portion of international workers in Poland’s work force had increased from 1-2% to 6-7%.

Polish employers are pressing their government to allow Ukrainians to obtain 3-year work permits. This is a serious step towards turning our labor migration into emigration,” said Voskoboynyk, recently on Ukraina 24 TV. “This question is not just about our employers, but about the future economic development of our state…there will be a problem of demographic nature within our country…and this will lead to the question of who will invest in a country where there is no one to work.”

Facing labor shortages, EU countries increasingly compete for Ukrainian workers.

“If Poland wants most Ukrainian workers to stay in the country, it must adapt to changing realities, because the struggle for a Ukrainian worker among European countries is just beginning,” said Anatoliy Zymnin, the PR manager for EWL Group at a recent press conference. In EWL’s May survey of 570 Ukrainians working in Poland, many respondents said they were interested in trying to work in a new EU country. Top choices were: Germany, Czech Republic and the Scandinavian nations.

A survey by opendatabot found that 12,840 jobs were offered to Ukrainians by EU employers in June, almost double the 7,667 offered in May. Top recruiting countries were: Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania, and Latvia. The most sought after workers were: plumbers, electricians, welders, handymen, packers, seamstresses, chefs, nurses, and drivers. Last week, work.ua reported an increase by 33% in the number of job offers from Polish employers.

Deutsche Bahn, the German railway, is also advertising in Ukraine for seven different kinds railway construction specialists. DB is looking for workers with five years of experience in their field, who have a good grasp of German. Earlier this year, the railroad was looking for locomotive driver trainees.

Fighting a slow drain of workers to Poland and Germany, Ukrzaliznytsia is raising salaries this month by 10% for all employees earning up to $1,000 a month.

Germany’s Labor Ministry is speaking with its Ukrainian counterparts about allowing Ukrainians to do seasonal farm work. At present, there are only 20,000 international workers in Germany which are classed as ‘holiday workers.’ The country has signed a pilot agreement with Georgia and Ukraine to allow workers to enter under simplified rules to work 90 days in a 180-day period. The situation is critical for the agricultural sector, as German farmers say they need 300,000 workers in the summer.

With thousands of Ukrainians working in rural parts of Finland this summer, picking blueberries, cloudberries and strawberries, Finland’s Health Ministry is asking local health units to vaccinate all guest workers against Covid-19.

On one case of a reverse flow, 80,470 international students are attending Ukrainian universities, bringing $600 million a year into the country, said Ukraine’s Educations Ministry. Almost one quarter come from India. International students studying medicine in Ukraine pay $4,000-$4,500 in tuition per year, about one third the amount they would pay in the EU.

Ukraine’s GDP grew by 6% yoy in the second quarter, the Economy Ministry reported. The increase comes after five straight quarters of decline due to the coronavirus pandemic. In a Reuters poll, economists predicted an 8% yoy increase. The Ministry said: “In the second quarter of 2021 economic recovery entered a positive trend, although it continues to be affected by the pandemic.” The government forecasts 4.1% growth for all of 2021, cancelling out last year’s decline of 4%.

Solar and wind energy producers are pursuing 130 legal actions totaling $66 million against Ukrenergo’s Guaranteed Buyer for non-payment of the green tariff, reports expro.com.ua.  The Guaranteed Buyer says it is trying to reach a compromise on the claims. Last month, this state company said the overdue debt amounts to $630 million. The President’s office is considering a proposal to place a $500 million hryvnia ‘green bond’ to pay most of the debt.

 

 

  • Trade Deficit Shrinks
  • EU Woos Ukraine for Minerals of the New Economy
  • IMF: From SBA to EFF?
  • Gov’t: 40% of Ukrainian ‘Immune’ to Covid
  • Odesa Airport Gets World Class Runway
  • Coney Island Hot Dogs Now in Kyiv

 

With Ukraine’s imports and exports of goods up by 26%, the trade deficit has dwindled to $1.1 billion for the first five months of this year. May 2021 saw a trade surplus of $261 million, the State Statistics Service reported. At the start of 2021, some economists forecast a goods trade deficit of $8 billion.

Concorde Capital’s Evgeniya Akhtyrko wrote: “A surge in exports of ferrous metals and mineral products is a result of an incredibly favorable price situation on global markets.  A surge in imports of vehicles is likely caused by a new wave in the purchase of used automobiles abroad by individuals amid another extension of tax privileges on their imports.”

In another sign of economic recovery, the government received 6% more tax revenues in the first half of the year than targeted, Prime Minister Shmygal announced to the Rada. The government received an extra $1.3 billion in tax revenue.

By 2025, the EU plans to make batteries for 6 to 8 million electric cars per year. To build this industry, “investments in the sector reached more than €120 billion in 2019 and 2020 alone – that is three times more than in China,” Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission’s Vice-President for International Relations, told Interfax-Ukraine last week during his 2-day visit to Ukraine. “So there is a huge dynamic. We are your neighbor.”

Highlights:

  • Lithium: EU’s battery industry will need 18 times more supply of lithium by 2030 and 60 times more by 2050. “With this huge demand comes a huge opportunity for Ukraine not only for extracting lithium but also for refining lithium due to the unavailability of the refining capacity in Europe.”
  • Cobalt: “Currently, Europe imports close to 70% of cobalt from Congo and other far away places. And again Ukraine has deposits of cobalt.”
  • Rare earth: “Europe imports 98%-99% of rare earths from China. Some demand could be covered by supplies from Ukraine. We need rare earths for batteries, for magnets used in wind turbines, etc.”

Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation says Kostyantin Zhevago, controlling shareholder of London-listed iron pellet producer Ferrexpo, had been put on an international wanted list. Zhevago, a former lawmaker and former beneficiary owner of Finance & Credit Bank, is wanted on suspicion of embezzlement and money-laundering in connection with the disappearance of $113 million from the now bankrupt lender. Zhevago’s press service denies that he is on the wanted list, saying Interpol has not acted on a petition it received last October.

With the summer slipping away, the realistic scenario for Ukraine’s relationship with the IMF might be to convert Ukraine’s frozen Stand-By Arrangement into an Extended Fund Facility, wrote Timothy Ash, a veteran observer of Ukraine’s IMF deals. The IMF may “look to roll the monies into a new EFF to be negotiated towards year end – maybe that should now be the focus,” Ash writes from London. “Any such EFF would then roll in much needed structural reform conditionality. Arguably the problem with the current SBA was that it lacked any real structural benchmarks.”

Ukraine received 2 million doses of the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine from the US government. Due to be distributed to all regions, the US-made vaccines are to be distributed to companies with more than 50 workers and to essential personnel including teachers and police officers. This month Ukraine will also receive from the US 1 million doses of the German-American Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine.

Up to 40% of Ukrainians are now immune to Covid-19, said Oleksiy Danilov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. He referred to a national survey indicating that one third of Ukrainians have had Covid. As of Friday, 4 million vaccinations have been administered. A total of 2.6 million Ukrainians have received the first vaccination. In addition to this, 1.4 million have been fully vaccinated. Danilov concluded: “If we take into account vaccinated people, we believe between 38% and 40% in our country are now immune.”

Culminating three years of work, Odesa Airport’s new 2.8 km cement runway opened last Friday. With Ukraine’s first new runway in a decade and a new, 30,000 square meter international air terminal, the director of Odesa airport, Volodomyr Semenchenko, believes that the terminal can double passenger traffic from pre-pandemic levels, to 4 million in 2025. He has predicted that passenger traffic will reach 1.4 million this year, double last year’s level and 85% the level of 2019.

In a first step, Wizz Air Abu Dhabi will launch Abu Dhabi-Odesa flights in September. There are several airlines that were waiting for a new runway to recommence flights,” Semenchenko told reporters. Replacing a runway built in 1961, the new runway can handle medium and long-range aircraft Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. It helps to boost the airport’s rating by the International Civil Aviation Organization to ‘all weather.’ Sergey Grinevetsky, the Head of the Odesa regional administration said: “The airport is a magnet that can attract investment.”

In the first week in August, SkyUp airlines will commence flying between Kyiv Borspil and three cities in Saudi Arabia – Dammam, Jeddah and Riyadh. At the same time, Ukraine’s low cost airline will start a weekly flight between Lviv and Dammam.

Nathan’s Famous, the New York hot dog brand, has arrived in Ukraine. From this week, the all-beef, smoked sausages – with secret seasonings – are on sale at six of the SOCAR gas stations in Kyiv. SOCAR, officially the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, has bought Ukraine franchise rights and plans to soon expand the Coney Island hot dogs to its other 50 gas stations in Ukraine. For Nathan’s it is a bit of a homecoming. The first Nathan’s hot dog stand was opened just over a century ago by Nathan Handwerker, an immigrant Galicia, then part of Poland, now Western Ukraine.

The original English version is from our partner UBN – Ukraine Business News. For more information and news archive, go to: www.ubn.news.

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