- Belarus Economic Drop Could Hit Ukraine
- After 100 Days, Saakashvili Quits Reform Council to Go Home to Georgia
- Facing Ban on Foreign Travelers, UIA Cuts Flights
The standoff between Belarus’ long-running ruler and mass opposition may soon cripple the finances of Ukraine’s northern neighbor and fourth largest trading partner. In the last week, the Belarusian ruble weakened by 8.5%, falling to 2.67 to the dollar. Belarus’ foreign currency reserves are down to $4.3 billion –“sufficient to cover just 1.4 months of imports, while three months is considered the minimum,” economist Anders Aslund writes in a new Atlantic Council piece: “Belarus Crisis: Can Lukashenka Survive a Collapsing Currency?”
Strikes are affecting three of four key state companies – fertilizer makers Belaruskali and Grodno Azot and oil refineries Naftan and Mozyr. They account for two thirds of Belarus’ exports to the West. “A prolonged strike at any of these four state-owned companies would collapse Belarusian export revenues and the Belarusian ruble, bringing Lukashenko to his knees,” writes Aslund, a Swedish-American economist with three decades experience in the ex-USSR. “If the currency collapses, the real strife will start.”
Ukraine is Belarus’ second largest trading partner, after Russia, Dmitry Chervyakov, a consultant with Berlin Economics, tells the Kyiv Post. Last year, Belarus exported $4.1 billion in goods to Ukraine and imported $1.7 billion. Ukraine bought four million tons of diesel and bitumen from Belarus for $2.4 billion and fertilizers for $300 million, largely from Belaruskali, the potash producer. Many of Belarus’ imports from Ukraine are transshipped to Russia to skirt bilateral Russia-Ukraine trade bans.
Lithuania is preparing to route Ukraine-bound trucks through eastern Poland if traffic disruptions start in Belarus, Yaroslav Narkevich, Lithuania’s Minister of Transport and Communications, tells Russian Railways Partner site. “We intend to discuss with Poland the option of returning our carriers through Poland, bypassing Belarus,” he said. “So far there is no need to redirect the flow of trucks, but we are ready for this.” On Aug. 5, four days before the disputed Belarus presidential election, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers had approved for Rada debate a liberalization law that would abolish the need for international trucking permits for Belarus-Ukraine trade.
Ukraine has “tightened control” at Ukraine-Belarus border crossings in wake of Lukashenko’s charges that Ukraine is trying to destabilize his regime. “We have tightened control at the border with Belarus, since the situation in this country is quite turbulent,” Border Guard spokesman Andriy Demchenko told RBK-Ukraine.
Starting today, Ukrainians can only enter Belarus with a foreign passport, reminds Ukraine’s Border Guard Service. A similar rule went into effect six months ago for travel to Russia. The government is trying to phase out the domestic passport paper booklets, which are easy to counterfeit.
In an open letter signed by more than 2,500 Belarusian IT CEOs, investors and developers, democratic normalcy is essential for the future of the industry in Belarus. Otherwise, they warn: “In the near future, we will begin to observe a massive outflow of specialists abroad, the opening of offices in neighboring countries, a slowdown in the growth of the IT sector, a decrease in investment in Belarusian IT companies, and a decrease in tax revenues.”
Japanese-owned tech company Rakuten Viber has closed its office last week in Minsk. San Francisco-based Rakuten CEO Djamel Agaoua cited violence against employees in Minsk. Kharkiv and other Ukrainian IT centers are recruiting Belarusian developers to move to Ukraine.
Russia’s Gamaredon hacking group has prepared “a large coordinated attack on government agencies and critical infrastructure” by sending out email attachments infected with malware, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council warned. The goal may be to disrupt the Oct. 25 local elections. Phony emails were made to look like messages from Ukraine’s State Security Service. Council Secretary Oleksiy Danylov warns: “Cyberthreats from the Russian Federation are extremely dangerous for both Ukraine and European countries.”
So far this year, one million cases of cyber threats – website attacks, DDoS attacks, phishing and malicious software – have been recorded by the National Coordination Center for Cybersecurity, a unit of the Defense Council. To respond to threats and prevent attacks, the Center is stepping up cooperation with private sector companies. Last month, it signed cooperation agreements with three dozen private foreign and Ukrainian companies.
The Zelenskiy government is tripling the number of state companies protected from privatization – to 659. The Cabinet of Ministers approved the new list Wednesday. It will now go to the Rada. Last year, the Rada abolished a similar list of over 1,000 companied exempt from privatization.
Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a major free market force in the Zelenskiy government, announced that he is returning home to Georgia, reports Georgia Online. “I know that we can live much cooler, much better, and every Georgian can be rich, and we can do it together!” he says in a video. “I’m coming back!”
Appointed three months ago to serve as chairman of Ukraine’s National Reform Council, Saakashvili felt the push of anti-reformers in the Zelenskiy government and the lure of Oct. 31 parliamentary elections in Georgia. Responding to negative reactions, Saakashvili posted on Facebook: “Some of my Ukrainian friends mourn my ‘farewell’ to Ukraine. I want to tell them: heads up! We will fight both in Georgia and in Ukraine! We will win there and there!”
In Tbilisi, Thea Tsulukiani, Georgia’s Justice Minister since 2012, promised to prepare a jail cell for the former president. In 2018, Saakashvili was convicted in absentia in two trials on charges stemming from his decade in office, from 2004 to 2013. The sentences handed down by Tbilisi City Court total nine years. Saakashvili and his supporters say the trials were politically motivated.
Zelenskiy also asks European leaders to spell out the steps for Ukraine to join the EU. “I asked many European leaders this question – what do you want Ukrainians to do, step by step, to become an EU member?” he said in the interview. Calling on Ukraine to speed up adoption of EU norms, he said: “We just have to become the country that Europe really would want.”
Kyiv Boryspil, Ukraine’s busiest airport, is installing a $37,000 temperature screening system that allows border guards to identify passengers with fever systems as they walk past a stationary camera. “It enables instant, non-contact temperature measurement of passengers from a distance,” the State Border Service said of the EU-donated equipment.
Noting that foreigners currently account for 60% of UIA’s passengers, UIA said it is cancelling flights in September between Kyiv and Athens, Barcelona, Berlina, Chisinau, Delhi, Geneva and Madrid. It will reduce frequencies between Kyiv and Brussels, Dusseldorf, Dubai, Istanbul, Paris and Tel Aviv. UIA CEO Yevhen Dykhne says the government ban “will have a negative impact on the aviation industry of Ukraine, which in the absence of any other state support in the crisis caused by the global pandemic, is economically weakened and is in critical condition.”
- Borders Close to Incoming Foreigners
- Ukrainian Railways gets new CEO
- MinFin Keeps Rates Low
- More Loan Money for Small Biz
- Zelenskiy Pledges help for Yuzhmash
- Retail Up
- Work Starts News Month on Dnipro Airport
Ukraine shuts its borders to foreign travelers for one month (start 29.08.). The major exceptions are: foreigners with Ukraine residence permits, diplomats, travelers in transit, students enrolling in universities, truck drivers and airline crews. The ban is designed to slow the spread of coronavirus, Prime Minister Shmyhal said after the weekly Cabinet of Ministers meeting. Starting today, the government bans discos, nightclubs and concerts in ‘green’ zones.
Ukraine’s Health Ministry has expanded its list of ‘red zone’ coronavirus countries to 65, adding Albania and Montenegro. Red zone countries have a 14-day infection rate higher than Ukraine’s level of 55/100,000 population. Travelers arriving from a red zone country must have full health insurance and undergo self-isolation until they test negative for the virus. The bilingual list can be found here.
With Ukraine’s schools scheduled to open today, President Zelenskiy warned families to take precautions, noting that his 7-year-old son, Kyrylo, was hospitalized last month for coronavirus complications, along with his mother, Olena Zelenska. “No one is afraid of it until it reaches your family,” the president said. “I will speak plainly – this coronavirus is a real plague. There is no other word for it. My wife was affected, and so was my son.”
Law enforcement authorities in Chernivtsi, one of the country’s hardest hit red zones, decide to suspend the operation public transport, according to Ukrinform citing Deputy Mayor of Chernivtsi Dmytro. “Despite the decision taken by the city council, the police stopped and suspended public transport in Chernivtsi.”
Adamant Capital writes: “Although Ukraine is currently displaying the highest amount of new cases on record, it seems unlikely that restrictions similar to those that have been introduced at the start of the pandemic are going to be reinstalled any time soon…the 2Q20 real GDP figure (-11.4% YoY) has demonstrated quite clearly the cost of an even relatively light lockdown and suggests that repeating the same scenario may be politically unaffordable unless the health crisis becomes dire.”
Volodymyr Zhmak will be the new CEO of Ukrainian Railways, the nation’s largest employer and a major economic player, the Cabinet of Ministers announced. Zhmak was previously a member of the Supervisory Board of the Boryspil Airport and has served as Deputy Chairman of the Odessa Regional State Administration. He also worked as an advisor to the president of Kyivstar, the Ukrainian mobile telephone company.
Passenger transport volume was down 41% yoy in July, reports ICU. In cities, transport was at 70-80% of last year’s levels. But rail was 38% of 2019 levels and air was only 18% of July 2019.
Retail turnover was up 8.5% yoy in July. However, wholesale trade fell by 6% yoy after the surge by 12% yoy in June, according to ICU.
Alfa-Bank Ukraine writes: “Retail trade provides a strong positive surprise in July. The sector accelerated to a growth of 8.5% y-o-y, already close to its pre-COVID trajectory. For comparison, we expected acceleration only to 3-4%…most of the unexpected boost was concentrated in the City of Kyiv, while many other regions indeed experienced less striking recovery in July…many residents of the capital stayed at home instead of spending abroad…This speculation is also supported by the fact that Odesa and Mykolaiv regions…were also the ones which experienced significant retail trade acceleration in July.”
The Finance Ministry placed UAH 816 million ($29.8 million) in 3-month local currency bonds at 7% and $31 million in 12-month hard currency bonds at 3.5%.
Concorde Capital’s Evgeniya Akhtyrko writes of Tuesday’s weekly auction: “The local bond market is in its traditional summer vacation lethargy. However, there is no guarantee that the next month will bring much of a revival to the market. The government is likely to have difficulty in its attempts to increase UAH auction receipts while keeping interest rates at the current level, as most market players apparently find them too low.”
Prime Minister Denis Shmygal pledges $328 million more for Ukraine’s “5-7-9% affordable loan program” to prop up small businesses, the head of government announced on Facebook. He writes: “Small business owners need affordable resources to support their own business during the crisis. At the same time, there are new opportunities, so UAH 1 billion was spent on investment needs. We expect that this year we will have 7, 9 and even more billion hryvnias issued in the form of affordable loans for Ukrainian entrepreneurs.”
President Zelenskiy pledges support for Yuzhmash, the state-owned machine-building company that manufactures products for defense, aviation, agriculture, thermal power, and space industries. Visiting his native Dnipropetrovsk region, the President said: “We are ready to do everything possible to make Yuzhmash a Ukrainian brand and return the attention of various Western investors interested in its products.”
Construction on Dnipro airport’s new 3,000 meter runway will start next month, President Zelenskiy said on a visit to the city. Reviewing the tender schedule, he said: “I am sure that by the end of September we will see work on the airport.” Alexander Bondarenko, head of Dnipropetrovsk regional administration, added that DCH, the Kharkiv-based group, also will start work next month at the airport, building a new terminal.
Ukraine pays one of the highest electricity prices in Europe, according to the EU – €46.9 per MWh, while the European average was €33.5 per MWh. Countries paying the most are: Greece at €50 per MWh, Malta at €45 per MWh, Bulgaria €42 per MWh, Romania at €41 per MWh, Hungary and Poland €41 per MWh. The lowest are: Norway at €15 per MWh and Sweden at €17 per MWh.
Industrial output is down 4.8% yoy in July, according to the State Statistics Service. This represents a slight improvement from the 5.6% yoy drop recorded in June.
Food production is up 4.6% yoy in July, according to the State Statistics Service.
NBU board chairman Bohdan Danylyshyn says he thinks the disbursement of two tranches from the IMF in 2020 is unrealistic, Ukrinform reports. “Obviously, the baseline scenario of receiving two tranches by the end of this year – in September and December – is unrealistic. We can most likely expect the receipt of one tranche in the fourth quarter of 2020,” he says.
At the same time, Danylyshyn says “cooperation with the IMF will continue. Support from international partners remains one of the most important factors of macrofinancial stability in Ukraine. The planned revision of the program with the IMF, in my opinion, should be accompanied by a revision of the conceptual framework for cooperation and its focus on support for the national interests of Ukraine, not just international investors.”
Ukrbud’s unfinished construction problems are “basically resolved,” said Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. “The issue of Ukrbud is practically resolved, and I thank the city authorities and our colleagues for that, we worked here, found investors… And the issue of Ukrbud is practically removed from the agenda, and I believe that the last houses will be adopted soon.”
- Rada Ratifies Nearly $2 billion in EU Aid
- Ukreximbank Buys Bonds to Build Roads. Capital Investments Down 35%
- State Aid for Cheap Mortgages and Small Business Loan
The Rada ratifies a memorandum of understanding between Ukraine and the EU for €1.2 billion of pandemic-related financial assistance, according to the results of last week’s extraordinary session. The agreement is to be the largest tranche of EU funds directly disbursed to Ukraine, according to Prime Minister Shmygal.
The money is conditioned on the government’s pledge to ensure competitive selections for key positions, including the heads of Ukraine’s tax and customs agencies. Other conditions include dissolving the existing State Fiscal Service and creating a new agency to investigate economic and financial crimes.
The exact terms of the pandemic-relief loan have not yet been revealed, but previous EU liquidity programs were offered at 2% annual interest or lower to European Neighborhood Policy countries.
Back in May, the European Parliament and Council decided to extend macro-financial credit assistance to European Neighborhood Policy countries. The ENP countries are Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine.
The Rada signs off on a European Investment Bank program worth €450 million to help Ukraine’s big road building program, according to the government. The Bank says: “The financing will increase safety and help modernize parts of the network included in the extended Trans-European Network for Transport (TEN-T), which links the country internationally and to the EU in particular.”
The €450 million in EIB financing covers:
Construction of a new northern motorway bypass in Lviv region. The bypass is expected to serve 20,000 vehicles a day and will connect Kyiv’s Chop international highway and the Lviv – Lutsk national road. It will connect Lviv to Rava Ruska, Lviv to Krakovets and Lviv to Shegyni international highway on the route from Ukraine to Poland.
Upgrade of a 314 km section of the M05 highway on the Kyiv-Odessa route. This is the main connection between Kyiv and the Black Sea ports and serves 10,000 to 25,000 vehicles daily.
Ukreximbank signed an agreement with the State Roads Agency to purchase local currency bonds worth UAH 2.87 billion at 9.99%, the press service of the bank reports on Facebook. The state-owned bank raised funds for the purchase in the form of a refinancing loan from the National Bank of Ukraine, which was with a 3-year tenor and 6% interest rate. “Using a new instrument for the market, introduced by the NBU to stimulate investment and long-term lending, on August 19, the bank took part in the auction of an interest rate swap. After that it signed agreement with Ukravtodor,” said the bank’s board chairman Yevhen Metzger.
Ukreximbank combined three instruments at once – a refinancing loan, an interest rate swap and purchase of securities. Metzger said: “This is the first market transaction of this magnitude.”
Capital investments are down by 345% ($2.56 billion) in the first half of 2020, compared to the same period last year, reports Liga Business citing the State Statistics Service. Investment in agriculture decreased by 45.5%, in heavy industries by 32%, in construction by 23%, in trade by 32.5%, in transport by 54.4%. Investments in courier services were up 39% and telecoms by 10%.
The Rada approves state guarantees on $183 million of loans made to small and medium-sized enterprises, according to the government. Should borrowers default, the government will be obligated to repay up to 80% of the principal on loans made to entrepreneurs by state-owned banks.
The Rada authorizes the Ministry of Finance to issue more domestic local currency bonds (OVDPs) for the additional capitalization of the State Mortgage Agency to expand mortgage lending, reports Liga.net.
The Cabinet of Ministers calls for some quarantine measures to be extended until November 1, according to the office of the president. Over 108,000 people in Ukraine are known to be infected with Covid-19. The most affected regions today are Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv and Ternopil.
“But quarantine must remain adaptive and un-burdensome for entrepreneurs,” Zelenskiy stressed. “Small and medium-sized businesses should be able to properly maneuver in the new conditions.”
The government is in the process of developing regulations to ban citizens from “red zone” countries from entering Ukraine for 30 days, said the president. Globally, nearly 25 million people are confirmed to be infected with Covid-19, with the real number likely to be higher due to undertesting.
Zelenskiy suggests Ukraine should open up for Belarusians, given the increasing instability and continuing protests against President Lukashenko. “How can we ban Belarusians from entering, especially given the extremely tense domestic political situation in them? I think that it is necessary to reasonably prescribe easier conditions for Belarusians to enter us. This is a very delicate topic – everything must be taken into account.”
UIA will operate a Kyiv-New York-Kyiv flight on Sept. 9. The jet leave Kyiv Boryspil in the morning, turnaround at New York’s JFK, and then take off again for Ukraine at 5:45 pm. The one-way fare is $482. Americans and residents of the United States have to undergo Covid tests on arrival in Boryspil and start 2-week self-isolation, until tests come back positive. Tickets can only be bought through the UIA website: https://www.flyuia.com/ua/en/home.
- IMF Review Date Is Not Set
- Reserves Hit New High. Miracle for Mykolaiv?
- Ukraine’s G.I. Business Program
- IKEA Boosts Goods
The IMF has yet to set a date for the review of the Standby Agreement, a review that was to be in September. IMF Ukraine representative Goesta Ljungman tells Hromadske that while “discussions on the implementation of the parameters and indicators of the liquidity program are ongoing, the date of the IMF mission on the first revision of the program has not yet been determined.”
Ukraine received in June a first $2.1 billion tranche of what is to be a $5 billion loan program.
Prime Minister Shmygal says he expects Ukraine will receive the second tranche by the end of this year. Some economic analysts say the IMF switched to observation mode after President Zelenskiy unexpectedly switched the central bank leadership within a month of getting the first IMF tranche.
International reserves reached a new high this month at $28.8 billion, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. Boosted by the IMF tranche, this is the highest level in eight years.
Mykolaiv’s shipbuilding industry is to be revived with a government program designed to create 25,000 new jobs, President Zelenskiy and David Arakhamia, leader of the Servant of the People Rada, promised on a visit to a city that was the Soviet center for shipbuilding in the Black Sea. “We want to restore the former glory of the city of shipbuilders,” Arakhamia said, referring to Mykolaiv whose modern history dates back to the creation of a Russian Navy shipyard in 1789.
The government promises “a national program to support shipbuilding, cheaper credit resources,” Arakhamia said. Later, Oleh Uruskyi, Minister for Strategic Industries visited the Okean shipyard in Mykolaiv, reported the company website.
Business education for combat veterans and soft loans for veteran-owned startups are government priorities, President Zelenskiy said during an International Volunteer and Veterans Forum in Kyiv. “It’s both military skills and the rules by which all successful companies exist,” he said. “One cannot ignore the experience of other countries, where many veterans are the founders of large, serious, powerful, well-known companies.”
With the minimum monthly wage set to rise to $182 (UAH 5,000) today, Zelenskiy says the budget can “definitely support” the hike. On July 1, the minimum wage is to increase by 30%, to UAH 6,500, currently $237. Ukraine’s median monthly wage is $768.
Grain sales were down 18% yoy in July, reports UNIAN citing the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture. Due to bad weather, much of the harvest is late.
Steelmaker ArcelorMittal has transferred 50 million tons of slag to the government for the national road construction program, reports Interfax-Ukraine, citing the company. Earlier this year, Arcelor pushed the government to change regulations to allow construction of concrete roads with slag. Increasingly common across Europe, the use of crushed slag for road construction helps companies cut disposal costs. In turn it cuts costs for building concrete roads. So far this year, 100,000 cubic meters have been used to build roads in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions. The goal is to use almost 500,000 tons this year for roadbuilding.
Interpipe, Ukraine’s largest pipe and wheel producer, will redeem at par 97 million of its 2024 notes this week, according to the company.
IKEA Ukraine plans to offer 5,000 items in its first physical store in Kyiv, says Florian Mellet, Ukraine director of Ikea. He said: “A city-format store will open in Kyiv without a food department and restaurant, but we strive to launch them as soon as possible.” Earlier this year, IKEA started operating an online store that proved so successful that the company struggled to keep up with orders. Ikea’s first physical store in Ukraine is to open in Kyiv’s Blockbuster Mall by the end of this year.
Energy traders imported 345,000 megawatts of electricity in the first quarter of 2020, reports NERC. The imported electricity was from Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Belarus.
Passenger transport is down 56.2% y-o-y, reports the State Statistics Service. Rail was down 58.2%. Motor transport was down by 44.3%.
The original English version is from our partner UBN – Ukraine Business News. For more information and news archive, go to: www.ubn.news.
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