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  • Goal Now is GDP Growth
  • Brexit Offers Big Opportunities to Ukraine, Europe’s Biggest Food Exporter
  • China Flights Stop Tuesday
  • Work to Start on National Network of Four Lane, Divided Highways

Ukraine’s central bank slashed its prime interest rate Thursday by 250 basis points, to 11%. The sixth cut in nine months, Thursday’s was the largest. Emboldened by lower inflation, the National Bank of Ukraine now promises to end this year with prime at 7% – well below its earlier forecast of 9%.

This spring, prime may drop to 9% – half the level of one year earlier. “The most pronounced reduction in the key policy rate is expected to take pace in the first half of the year,” the bank said.

With the central bank lowering its 2020 inflation forecast to 4.8%, the goal now is economic growth. Cuts in prime “will lead to further decrease in interest rates on loans for corporates and households, stimulating business activity,” the bank said. According to the central bank’s Bank Lending Survey, banks expect an increase in demand for loans from households and businesses in the first quarter.

Fourth quarter growth slowed to a disappointing 2.2%, dragging 2019’s GDP growth down to 3.3%, Dmitry Sologub, deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine, told reporters. HI boss, Yakiv Smoliy, the bank governor, predicts that this year growth will be 3.5%, and in 2021 it will be 4%. The IMF forecasts 3% growth this year. The World Bank forecasts 3.7%.

Industrial output fell by 2% in 2019, reports the State Statistics Service.  Manufacturing, mining and utilities production in Ukraine slightly decreased over the year. The fastest growing regions for industrial production were: Vinnytsia +13% and Odesa Oblast: +7%.

The central bank predicts that foreign currency reserves will grow by 15% this year, to $29 billion, said Smoliy. Foreign direct investment last year was $2.5 billion, marginally above the 2018 level of $2.4 billion.

Foreign investment in the government’s hryvnia bonds ended 2019 at the hryvnia equivalent of $4.7 billion, an 18-fold jump during the year. Today, foreigners hold 15% of these bonds. On Tuesday, at the weekly bond auction, foreigners bought $44 million worth of domestic bonds, or 17% of all purchases.

With Brexit starting, President Zelenskiy has signed a decree extending for one more year visa-free access to Ukraine for British passport holders. With the visa regime unchanged, British citizens can visit Ukraine visa-free for 90 days out of 180 days. This regime started 15 years ago, when Ukraine abolished visas for citizens of all EU member countries. The EU’s reciprocal 90-day visa-free regime, which started for Ukrainians in June 2017, does not apply for travel to Britain or Ireland. In the last two years, the UK visa refusal rate for Ukrainians has averaged about 10%. With Brexit, the three airlines flying between Ukraine and London – Ryanair, Wizz Air and UIA – have not announced any schedule changes.

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Brexit could marry the UK, Europe’s largest food importer, with Ukraine, Europe’s largest food exporter, Bate Toms, Chairman of the British Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce, argues in an Atlantic Council piece, Ukraine Can Feed Brexit Britain.” Noting that Britain imports half of its food, Toms calls for a free trade agreement that would replace EU quotas and tariffs with a duty free trade in food between the two nations. Noting that Ukraine can easily supply Britain by rail or truck, Toms writes: “If unrestricted by tariffs, Ukraine’s exports of high-quality wheat, corn, barley, poultry, and other important foodstuffs should be able to fully meet the UK’s increased demand for the foreseeable future, and at significantly lower prices than the EU can offer.”

Starting last Tuesday, Ukraine suspends all direct flights from China for one month, for fear of the coronavirus. SkyUp and UIA will make final flights from Hainan Island, carrying Ukrainian tourists home from package tours. Xinhua reports that as of Monday, one case of the virus had been reported on Hainan, China’s southernmost major island. It is located 1,600 km south of Wuhan, the virus epicenter.

In the first electronic auction for commercial space in Kyiv’s Boryspil airport, the rental rate soared 19-fold from the asking price.More than $1,000 per square meter,” Infrastructure Minister Vladyslav Krikliy wrote on Facebook. “Probably a historical record for commercial real estate in Ukraine,” he wrote of the 191-square meter space in the future duty free space of Terminal F. Reopened last April, this low cost carrier terminal is expected to handle over 5 million passengers this year. The ministry intends to hold electronic auctions for 32 more airports spaces, some as small as two square meters for one ATM machine.

Foreign and domestic construction companies are invited to participate in a tender to build interchanges on two highways leading from Kyiv, announced Ukravtodor, the state highways agency. Part of a ‘European transport corridor’ under construction, the work is to be funded largely with loans from the EBRD and the European Investment Bank. Two interchanges are to be built on the Kyiv-Odesa highway. A third is to be built on the Kyiv-Lviv highway. Work is to be take two years.

Ukravtodor is developing a national network of four-lane divided highways with maximum speed limits of 130 km/hour. This spring, work start on: two sections of the M-03 in Poltava; the 64-km section of the M-07 from Kovel to the Polish border; and the 170 km stretch on the M-03 between Reshetylivka and Dnipro. With this last work, the 477 km drive from Kyiv to Dnipro, “instead of 6.5 hours, the road will take 4.5 hours,’ promises Ukravtodor.

  • Kravtsov Out at UZ
  • Help Wanted: Investment Nannies
  • Board Trains and Planes with an E-Passport
  • Kyiv Has Third Worst Traffic in Europe

Cheaper credit will stimulate investment, essential for the government to reach its 5% GDP growth target for 2020. Artem Shcherbyna, from Capital Times brokerage, tells Reuters: “The dynamics of consumer prices are favorable for lowering the rate; moreover, in January, 12-month inflation may fall below 3.5%.”

In a one-year switch, 60% of Ukrainians consider President Zelenskiy the major driver of reform in the country, according to a nationwide poll by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. One year ago, in an answer to the same question by the same polling group, only 24% said that President Poroshenko was Ukraine’s chief driver of reform. In the new poll, conducted in December, respondents listed ‘oligarchs’ – 51% – and ‘bureaucrats’ – 43% – as the top two reform blockers.

The EU and Ukraine agree to make nationalization of PrivatBank non-reversible, according to a statement after Prime Minister Honcharuk led the Ukraine side of an  ‘Association Council’ meeting in Brussels. Touching on a point key to EU and IMF aid, the statement reads: “The sides agreed on the importance of irreversibility of reforms in the banking sector, in particular in relation to the nationalization of PrivatBank stressing the importance of bringing to justice those responsible for the large-scale fraud at PrivatBank, and the recovery of assets.”

Yevhen Kravtsov has stepped down after running Ukrzaliznytsya for 2.5 years. No formal grounds of dismissal were given by the state railroad’s supervisory board. Last fall, the Zelenskiy Administration made it clear that they want to put their own candidate at the helm of UZ. Not only Ukraine’s largest employer, the railroad plays a key role in the nation’s economy. Kravtsov said UZ will pay him ‘not small’ compensation for breaking his contract early.

UkraineInvest is interviewing ‘investment nanny’ candidates. To fulfill President Zelenskiy’s promise to supply multilingual fixers to big foreign investment projects, the state investment promotion office is recruiting from hotels, consultancies and law firms. Daniel Bilak, director of UkraineInvest, says he is looking for “people who understand what services are, what customers are, what consumers are and how to relate to them.”

The World Trade Association has licensed World Trade Center Kyiv, reports Henry Shterenberg, president of the new organization. World Trade Center Kyiv is to open at the end of this year at the Ramada Encore hotel and office complex on the Stolychne Highway, 15 km south of central Kyiv. Around the world, there are 328 World Trade Centers in 91 countries.

Under a drive to digitize citizen interactions with the government over the next five years, Ukrainians can now show their electronic driver’s license to check in for a domestic flight or to board a train. The Digital Affairs Ministry has launched the Diya portal which allows each citizen e-rights and an electronic data sheet with a digital image of documents issued to a person along with a unique QR code. To order e-rights or a digital passport, a driver needs to download to a smartphone the mobile application of Diya – formally the Unified State Web Portal of Electronic Services.

Kyiv has the third worst traffic in Europe, after Moscow and Istanbul, according to a new ranking by TomTom, the Dutch satellite navigation company. In a ranking of 416 cities around the world, Kyiv placed 12th, Odesa 18th, Kharkiv 29th; and Dnipro 47th. During 2019, the slowest traffic was on Thursday evenings, between 18:00 and 19:30. Kyiv’s worst traffic jams last year were on Jan. 23. During one year, the average Kyiv driver spends 9.5 days sitting in traffic.

  • Climate Change Coddles Ukraine
  • Debt to GDP Drops
  • Foreign Demand Strong for 7-Year Hryvnia Bonds
  • The Duties of an ‘Investment Nanny’
  • Real Wages up 11.3%
  • Nova Poshta Aims to Repeat 22% Growth

Ukraine’s mild winter allowed the country to cut gas consumption by 9% y-o-y in 2019, to 30.5 billion cubic meters reports the State Statistics Service. December’s balmy temperatures depressed consumption by 19% y-o-y, to just 3.9 bcm.

Partly due to last year’s 14.4% strengthening of the hryvnia, the ratio of state debt to GDP at the end of December dropped to 50%, down from 61% at the start of 2019. In hryvnia, the total national debt decreased by 7.8%, to slightly less than 2 trillion hryvnia. In dollars, the debt grew by 7.7%, to $84.4 billion, reports the Finance Ministry.

Remarkable reduction – given the ratio was over 90% in 2015 at the time of the debt restructuring,” Timothy Ash writes from London. Referring to the GDP-linked warrants, he writes: “We can argue about whether warrants were the right way to go about the debt restructuring, but in the end the decision to be generous to bondholders, to deliver a speedy restructuring, and allow Ukraine to move on, was the right decision with hindsight.”

Ukraine should receive €500 million of macro-financial aid from the EU by the end of March, Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice president of the European Commission, said at a press briefing in Brussels with Prime Minister Honcharuk. “We at the European Commission have already begun an internal procedure in order to prepare the allocation of funds,” he said. “This will be possible in the first quarter of this year.” He added that release of the money is contingent on compliance with the IMF program for Ukraine.

With demand running at double supply, the Finance Ministry pushed most yields on its hryvnia bonds below 10% at its weekly Tuesday auction. Of the $255 million in hryvnia equivalent raised, the lion’s share – 59% – went for a novelty: 7-year bonds. Investors, largely foreigners, bought the equivalent of $150 million, with a weighted average yield of 9.79%. For other securities, yields were: three-month – 10.15%; one-year – 9.91%; and two-year – 9.86%. The Ministry’s Facebook page features one-year graphs, showing yields dropping like double diamond ski tracks.

How will Ukraine’s new ‘investment nannies’ work? Katya Gorchinskaya asks in an article in Forbes. “The investment nannies’ job will be to cast Mary Poppins-style magic every time their protegee needs a problem solved,” she writes. In reality, foreigners investing more than $100 million will sign a special agreement with the Cabinet of Ministers, and a memorandum with UkraineInvest. This government agency will provide the empowered troubleshooter.

This agreement “will lay out the benefits, conditions and obligations of the government and the investor,” says Economy Minister Tymofiy Milovanov. “For example, if needed, the government can build a railway station or guarantee connection to the energy infrastructure.” To bypass Ukraine’s courts, an international court of arbitration will be set up in Ukraine by this fall, says Yulia Kovaliv, deputy head of the president’s office. To meet a goal of selling 500 state companies this year, the government also will offer 5-year profit tax holidays and accelerated depreciation, to 2-5 years.

Real, inflation adjusted wages rose by 11.3% last year, according to the State Statistics Service. In nominal terms, average monthly wages were up 16% y-o-y, to UAH 12,264, or $496. The biggest increase average nominal wages were in: Mykolaiv – 26%; Rivne – 21%; Khmelnitsky – 21%; Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk – by 19%; Zaporizhia, Lugansk, Donetsk and Volyn – by 17%; Ternopil, Odesa and Cherkasy – by 16%.

At Ukrposhta, one of Ukraine’s largest employers, the average monthly salary is UAH 6,400, or $259. Ihor Smiliansky, CEO of the state postal service, says the average salary has almost doubled since he took the post almost four years ago.

Nova Posta, the private delivery service, plans to expand package deliveries by 18-25% this year, Alexander Bulba, company director, tells reporters. Last year, business grew by 22%, to 212 million packages. With 98% percent of deliveries domestic, Nova Poshta wants to expand its international service by 30% this year, to 4.4 million. China accounts for 68% of its international business. After doubling branches to 6,000 last year, Nova Poshta plans to add 1,200 new offices and pick up lockers this year.

Ukraine and Israel can double bilateral trade to $2 billion, President Zelenskiy said on his recent trip to Israel. Last August, Zelenskiy signed a free trade agreement between the two countries. Because of Israel’s political paralysis, Israel’s Knesset, has not ratified the free trade agreement. On March 2, Israel is to have the third parliamentary election in one year.

  • Pave, Baby, Pave! Ukraine’s Gears Up for Its Biggest Road Building Year in History
  • Bridges, Ring Roads, and Foreign Construction Companies Mark the Road Campaign
  • Ukravtodor, Vodaphone May Launch Eurobonds
  • Big Interest Rate Cut Expected

The biggest road building program in Ukraine’s history starts March 1. Officials have five weeks to complete tenders and plans, Prime Minister Honcharuk warned Monday at the state highway agency’s Ukravtodor UA Roads 2020 forum. The plan is to spend $2.7 billion to repair and rebuild 4,000 km of roads. “We have a stated task – large-scale construction should start March 1,” the Prime Minister said. “As fast as the weather will allow, we have to go out and build.”

Good roads are economic force multipliers in a country where Ukravtodor says 90% are in poor shape. The faster we build good roads, the faster our economy grows, the faster we can afford to raise social standards,” Honcharuk told the meeting in Kyiv of highway professionals. “Roads are also jobs, taxes.”

To finance rebuilding of an additional 1,000 km of roads, Ukravtodor is talking with the Finance Ministry about placing a Eurobond next summer, Alexander Kubrakov, the new head of the agency, tells the Center for Transportation Strategies. This new funding would allow Ukravtodor to pave twice as much road length as last year’s 2,350 km. Kubrakov, a veteran of the EU-funded Better Regulation Delivery Office, says he is cutting corruption by replacing 70% of the heads of regional highway agencies and embracing electronic tenders and foreign oversight.

Ukravtodor plans to start construction this spring on river bridges in Kremenchuk, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia.  Japan International Cooperation Agency, or JICA, has prepared a draft loan agreement to finance most of the Mykolaiv bridge.

The highway agency plans to build nine ring roads, allowing trucks and through traffic to bypass city centers. Bypasses will be built around the cities of: Beregove, Chernivtsi, Dnipro, Khmelnitsky, Lviv, Poltava, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and Ternopil. “Ukrainian cities should be freed from transit traffic, because it reduces the number of jams and improves the transit potential of the road network,” Kubrakov said. “It will positively influence traffic safety, air quality, the life of the road surface and reduce the number of accidents.”

As Austria’s Strabag prepares to bid on road tenders, Turkey’s Onur has won a tender to rebuild 40 km of the Kyiv-Odesa M-05 highway, from Bila Tserkva south to the Odesa Region border. Deemed part of the Pan-European Corridor, the highway is receiving EBRD and European Investment Bank funding.

Coal ash and slag are to become key components of highway paving, Kubrakov says.  As demonstrated in the US and EU, use of these industrial wastes can cut highway construction costs by 30%. Ukraine generates 7.5 million tons of ash and slag waste every year. Use is to be concentrated in four southeast regions with large concentrations of thermal power plants: Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhia. “In all these regions we definitely want to use ash and slag,” says the head of the highway agency.

About 10% of allocated Road Fund money – or $57 million – were never spent by regions last year. The worst performing areas were: Chernivtsi – 39%; Kirovograd – 34%; Zhytomyr – 24%; Donetsk -22%; Kherson – 20%.

On Saturday, a government-funded program started to extend low interest loans to as many as 50,000 small businesses, Prime Minister Honcharuk reports after winning Cabinet approval on Monday.  Offering rates as low as 5%, participants will be able to borrow up to $61,652.

Vodaphone Ukraine starts a roadshow to debut 5-year, dollar-denominated Eurobonds, reports Interfax Ukraine. Purchased last month by Bakcell, an Azeri mobile phone company, Vodaphone is Ukraine’s second largest mobile phone operator, after Kyiv Star. Last April, Vodaphone Ukraine, under different ownership, placed issued €90 million worth of Eurobonds with a yield of 9.2% per annum. The roadshow organizers are: J.P. Morgan, Raiffeisen Bank International, Dragon Capital, and ICBC Standard Bank.

Ukraine’s Eurobond priced better last week than comparable bonds from countries from higher ratings, ICU reports. On Wednesday, Ukraine placed €1.25 billion worth of 10-year Eurobonds at 4.375%. Fitch gives Ukraine a ‘B’ rating. That day the 10-year Eurobonds of Egypt and Cote d’Ivoire, two countries with ‘B+’ ratings were trading at 4.8% and 4.6%, respectively.

Purchasers spanned the globe – from New York to London to Bahrein to Singapore to Hong Kong, reports Finance Minister Oksana Markarova. “200 investment funds from 31 countries have purchased Ukrainian 10-year Eurobonds,” she writes on Facebook. Buyers were: asset management funds – 85%; hedge funds – 7%; pension and insurance funds – 6%; banks – 2%. Top countries were: UK – 42%; US – 34%; and EU – 19%. ICU predicts Ukraine will place another Eurobond issue in March.

With the coronavirus spreading in China, SkyUp airlines will fly its last passengers out of Hainan Island, China tomorrow and on Saturday. Then, it will suspend charter flights between Ukraine and China for two months. Last Saturday, Borsypil airport started to give temperature body checks to all passengers are arriving on direct flights from China. Last month, for cost reasons, UIA stopped its flight to Beijing. Ukrposhta reports there is no threat of virus transmission through packages received from China.

SkyUp has become one of Europe’s 10 fastest growing airlines, according to the Anker Report. As Europe’s seventh fastest growing airline in Europe, SkyUp added 93 new routes to its schedule last year. Ukraine is served by other fast growing airlines –Ryanair, AirFrance, Wizz Air, Turkish, Alitalia and Lauda.

Over the past five years, the passenger flow at Ukrainian airports has doubled, rising from 10.7 million in 2015 to 24.3 million in 2019, reports the State Aviation Administration.

  • Qatar Wins 35-Year Concession to Run Port on Southern Bug
  • Heard in Davos: The Best and the Brightest Look at Ukraine in the 2020s

Qatar’s QTerminals has won a 35-year concession tender to run Olvia, a 180-hectare, year round seaport 20 km south of Mykolaiv City. QTerminals is Qatar’s leading port operator, operating Hamad, the country’s largest trading port. Last year, the company handled 1.3 million containers – one third more than all containers handled by all of Ukraine’s ports.

Under the deal, QTerminals is to invest $140 million in Olvia through 2024. In addition, it is to pay an annual concession fee of $3.3 million to Ukraine – a payout 16 times larger than Olvia port’s profits last year. “This is one of the largest foreign investments in the port industry, in the whole history of Ukrainian independence,” Infrastructure Minister Vladislav Krykliy writes on Facebook. “The move by this company gives a unique opportunity to modernize the port of Olvia, bring the work of the port and the level of related navigation and logistics services to the best international standards.”

Concorde Capital’s Andriy Perederey writes: “The concession agreements will enable the upgrade of the state-owned seaport infrastructure and increase its efficiency. We expect that the concession-based investments will lead to an increase of cargo shipments through the seaport and its financial results.”

HEARD IN DAVOS. For four days, the Ukraine House Davos gave a platform to some of Ukraine’s best and brightest to look forward to Ukraine in the 2020s. Here are a few excerpts:

Vladyslav Krykliy, Infrastructure Minister, wants to put four more ports up for concession this year – including the Chornomorsk ferry complex – and 10 railroad stations. Feasibility studies are being prepared for concessions to run four regional airports: Chernivtsi, Kherson, Lviv and Zaporizhia. To highlight poor public management, he said: “My favorite is Kyiv Central Rail Station. Last year, it lost $2 million. Next door, the McDonald’s made $3 million. And the traffic at the rail station is much higher.”

John M. Beck, Chairman of Aecon Group, Canada’s largest publicly traded construction company: It would be an honor for us to participate in the exciting growth that is clearly in Ukraine, particularly in the transportation sector, in the airports, in the toll roads. We will be there for you. We will be coming to see you very quickly.”

Lenna Koszarny, Horizon Capital CEO, said: “For investors, the window of opportunity that opens now on concessions can close very quickly. The window opens for concessions, then they are gone for 30-35 years.”

Dominique Piotet, chief executive of UNIT.City: I am more stimulated by the opportunities and challenges [in Ukraine] than when I arrived in Silicon Valley in 2004…I had not appreciated the maturity of companies working in the sector nor their global perspective and ambition. The realization that Ukraine is a cradle of next-generation technology innovation quickly replaced my perception of a skilled, low-cost outsourcing destination with a range of domestic-focused start-ups.”

Maciej Zielinski, CEO, director general, Siemens Ukraine, predict 3D printing will be soon be used by Antonov, Turboatom and the Paton Institute to make parts. “What is 3D printing?” he asked the panel ‘Ukraine As Europe’s Next Industrial Powerhouse.’ “It is welding. Paton is the world champion in welding.” In the last three years, Siemens doubled its business in Ukraine – a growth rate it expects to maintain over the next three years.

Matt Simpson, CEO of Toronto’s Black Iron Inc., predicts construction will start one year from now on the $750 million iron mine in Kriviy Rih. Last July, President Zelenskiy endorsed the massive mine, seven kilometers from his home town. “Before it was tough to get meetings,” Simpson recalled. “As soon as Zelenskiy got back to Ukraine, I got to meet with the Prime Minister, the Economy Minister, the Minister of Defense.“

Dmytro Sennychenko, head of Ukraine’s State Property Fund, is changing the management of state enterprises to facilitate transparent, competitive asset sales. “We are going to privatize more than 500 assets this year,” he said. “We know the book value does not correspond to the market value. There are poison pills, court cases. I am building a machine to transform them into transparent enterprises.”

Oleh Sentsov, filmmaker: “I hope the new authorities succeed in fighting against corruption and bring in investment,” said Sentsov who was released last fall after five years in Russian jails. “If the Russian population start seeing our success they will start asking for changes of their own government.”

Johan Eliasch, chairman and CEO of Head: “It’s only a matter of time before you get, not just $50 billion, but 100s of billions coming into Ukraine, but all that depends on confidence – and confidence often comes from word of mouth.”

David Arakhamia, secretary of the National Investment Council: “The current Labor Code is really communist, not socialist. All the businesses we talk to say: ‘We would hire 20-30% more people under a more liberal code’…As a politician, my Key Performance Indicator is to have at least 25-30 companies listed on other exchanges. But these would be originally Ukrainian companies.”

Yuriy Kosyuk, MHP CEO, on labor migration to Poland: We practically did not lose any engineers, technicians. We increased their salaries, we started to listen to them.”

Lenna Koszarny, Horizon Capital CEO: “If Ukraine gets it right, the country may very well emulate the post-reform economic rebound stories of Colombia – growing 13% annually for 10 years from 2004; the Philippines – growing 9% per annum from 2001-2014; Slovakia – surging 17% annually from 2000-2014, and other success stories, driven by focusing on structural reforms, attracting considerable FDI and substantially growing exports.”

Yulia Kovaliv, deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, promised that international arbitration will in place in by October.We want the foreign investors to have a space where can be supported with fair justice.”

Andriy Kobolyev, Naftogaz CEOsaid: At least 10 billion cubic meters of gas now can be stored in Ukraine to the benefit of the EU, creating more security. On top of that, we expect that excessive supply to the European gas market will result in lower margins, thus creating more profit for Ukraine.”

Janusz Kopacs, director of the Energy Community Secretariat: “The biggest risk I see is not in the gas sector – reforms have been implemented at 80% – but in the electricity market. It is currently very shaky. This is the next step. I hope that in a year there will be another success story.”

Misha Rogalsky, cofounder of Monobank: “We put a cat into our app. People loved the cat so much that they did transfers of one kopeck to see the cat. We put humor in banking.” 

The original English version is from our partner UBN – Ukraine Business News. For more information and news archive, go to: www.ubn.news. 

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